你的位置:水利论文 >> 论文 >> 江苏省 >> 南京信息工程大学 >> 详细内容 在线投稿

夏季影响我国的重要中期环流过程集合预报效果研究 【作者】段明铿 【导师】王盘兴; …

热度104票 浏览87次 【共9条评论】【我要评论 时间:2006年7月01日 22:39

aq3y2[T)Tf0夏季影响我国的重要中期环流过程集合预报效果研究水利论文6WT2r][k.i,}

+jCbF6v tS0【作者】段明铿导师王盘兴; Yuejian Zhu水利论文7Hb;i$o@U.bS&jc
【作者基本信息】南京信息工程大学,气象学,2006年,博士

.o4K!F'Ka0H(B0

B1t!V,{(s+B3@0
/W(G s,RO s0【中文摘要】 本文使用NCEP集合预报系统(EPS)输出的500hPa高度场预报资料和相应的NCEP/NCAR再分析实况资料,采用多种集合预报产品和预报效果检验评价方法,在亚欧与北美区域预报效果比较的基础上,以统计平均和个例分析相结合的方式,分析了夏季影响我国的重要中期环流过程的集合预报效果。分析的重点是亚欧中高纬阻塞高发区域和西太平洋副高区域,以及其中的低概率事件。结论如下: 1,NCEP-EPS对亚欧区域的环流集合预报效果总部上不亚于其对北美区域的预报效果。它表现在:(1)ACC检验表明,亚欧区域的集合平均预报效果在除冬季外的三个季节都明显优于北美区域,可用预报的时效相差达0.6~1d以上,且夏季的差别最大。RMSE检验表明,亚欧区域的预报效果在四个季节里均优于北美区域。(2)集合概率预报可靠性的季节差别不明显,均为预报时效较短(长)时,北美(亚欧)区域的可靠性更好。系统对亚欧区域的事件识别范围相对较小,但其预报可靠性比较高,北美区域则正好相反。(3)夏季亚欧区域的集合概率预报效果明显地优于北美区域,冬季时北美区域的预报效果较好,秋季两个区域的预报效果相当,春季在预报时效小于5d时北美区域占优,...更多而其后则是亚欧区域的预报效果更好。 2,夏季西太平洋副高活动区域集合预报效果优于单一确定性预报。它表现在:(1)ACC检验表明:在预报时效小于7.5d时,集合平均预报效果优于单一确定性预报;集合平均预报能将可用预报的最大时效在低分辨率预报的基础上提高近1d;副高活动区域集合平均预报的可用预报最大时效比整个亚欧区域低近1.5d。RMSE检验表明,集合平均预报效果明显高于确定性预报;它远较提高模式分辨率取得的效果好。(2)集合概率预报效果明显地高于确定性预报,造成这一结果的原因是概率预报结果在低概率阈值下的高命中率和低空报率。概率预报结果还可以使更大范围内的用户获得更高的经济价值。 3,夏季亚欧中高纬阻塞高发区域的集合预报优越性随着预报时效的延长而  还原

,Y1CV:`~O,]0水利论文wWa L2E nR j X7tU)~~

【英文摘要】 Based on the 500hPa geopotential height forecasts fields which are gotten from NCEP EPS, and a lot of ensemble products and methods on forecast verification and evaluation, the ensemble prediction performance on the summer important middle-range circulation influencing China are analyzed. Firstly the ensemble forecasting performance at the Asia-Europe region is compared with the Northern America, the ensemble performance on western Pacific subtropical high region and Asia-Europe middle-high latitude blocking region are analyzed and compared with the deterministic forecasts in the way of statistical average and case studies secondly, Moreover the low probability circulation events are discriminated and the corresponding ensemble probabilistic forecasts performance is analyzed. Following conclusions:1) As a whole, the NCEP-EPS circulation ensemble performance at the Asia-Europe region is nothing less than the prediction at the North America. It manifested in the following aspects: (1) AC...更多C test shows that in addition to the winter, the ensemble mean forecast of the Asia-Europe region in the other three seasons is clearly superior to the North America region, The maximal lead time of the useable forecasts can be extended 0.61d more, even the differences in summer are greater. RMSE test showed that the Asia-Europe region forecast results in the four seasons are over North America region. (2) The seasonal differences about the reliability of the ensemble probability forecasting are not evident. When the lead time is short (long), the reliability in North America (Asia-Europe) region is better. The synoptic events identification scope on the Asia-Europe regions is relatively smaller, but it's relatively higher reliability forecasts, the North American region is on the contrary. (3) Summer ensemble probability prediction results in Asia-Europe region are clearly superior to the North America region. In winter, NorthAmerica region has better results. In autumn, the two regions' results are homological. In spring, when the lead time is less than 5d, rather, the North America region results are better, and after 5d, the Asia-Europe region has better forecasting results.2) In summer, the ensemble prediction performance on western Pacific subtropical high region is better than single deterministic forecasting. It manifested in the following aspects: (1) ACC tests indicate that <7.5d in the forecasting period, the ensemble mean forecast results are superior to a single deterministic forecasting. Compare with low-resolution single forecasts, ensemble mean can improve 1d on the maximal lead time of useable forecasting. The maximal lead time of ensemble mean useable forecasts in the subtropical region is lower than the Asia-Europe region near 1.5d. RMSE test showed that the results of ensemble mean were noticeably higher than the single deterministic forecasting. It is much better than the results of improving the model resolution. (2) The performance of ensemble probabilistic forecasts is clearly higher than the deterministic forecasting. The cause of this situation is that a probability forecast results in the lower probability threshold have higher hit rate and lower false alarm rate. Probability forecasting results also allow greater access to users within the higher economic value.3) In summer, the superiority of ensemble prediction in the Asia-Europe middle-high latitude region is come forth with the extension of the lead time. Manifested in the following aspects: (1) ACC test shows: when the lead time is greater than 5d, ensemble average forecast results are over high-, low-resolution single deterministic prediction. Compare with the low-resolution forecasts, they will extend the maximal lead time of useable forecasts to 12h later, reaching 7.5d. RMSE test results similar to ACC. (2) the ensemble probabilistic results are clearly higher than the deterministic prediction. It will enable more users to higher economic value. (3) The comparison for EV among Asia-Europe middle-high latitude region, western Pacific subtropical high region and all the Asia-Europe region indicate that in different lead time,the range of cost/lost ratio >0 is identical. When lead time is less (more) than9.5d, in Asia-Europe middle-high latitude region (all the Asia-Europe region) the probabilistic forecast results are the best, in western Pacific subtropical high region results are the worst. This is related with the lower predictability in the low latitude circulation system.4) The case studies about a subtropical high northward leap and a blocking system in summer, 2003 also confirm the performance of ensemble forecasting. It manifested in the following aspects: (1) NCEP-EPS can successfully forecast two typical medium-range circulation processes. The deviations of ensemble mean forecasts versus the observation value are less than high-resolution deterministic forecasts. The performance of the blocking is better than the subtropical high. (2) The distribution characteristic of forecast uncertainty, which is gotten from ensemble spread and RMOP, can reflect the forecast inconsistency about the oscillation phase (location) and amplitude (strength). (3) Analysis on the individual characteristics isograms can provide the inconsistent information among ensemble members, get the probability estimation of weather event, and improve the forecast performance.5) Firstly, a distinction method on the low probability events is proposed based on the climatological equally likely bins. Then, the corresponding forecasting evaluation about low probability circulation events is performed, based on the 2003 summer Asia-Europe region dataset. Following conclusions: (1) in the analyzed period and region, the frequency of the low probability events is slightly higher than the climatological average situation. For NCEP-EPS, the forecast frequency for smaller low probability events is easy to be higher, but relatively reliable, for larger low probability is decreased with the extension of lead time. When the lead time is less than 3d (more than 5d), the forecast frequency is higher (lower), with relative less reliable. (2) EV analysis showed that the performance of NCEP-EPS probabilistic forecast for the low probability events is higher than normal weather events. (3) Forecast hit rate analysis shows that the hit rate is lower in the high-probability threshold.Analysis pointed out that this is perhaps related with the ensemble spread. With the lower probability threshold, hit rate steadily increased which means the spread of ensemble members can make them to cover all possible region of observation value, thereby to get the better forecasting results.  还原

4y$L!g:kA:l*q"R0

m3z7Q@(Y[n~ i0【中文关键词】 集合预报; 概率预报; 预报效果检验; 预报评价; 中高纬区域阻塞形势; 西太平洋区域副高水利论文 Sy)XT1n
【英文关键词】 ensemble prediction; probabilistic forecasting; forecast verification; forecast evaluation; blocking system in the middle-high latitude region; subtropical high in the western Pacific region
\!T"p3p_N B0水利论文V+W F d'PSW}

水利论文 K-U.RMA;[*i W

 水利论文oMxNMh

TAG: 导师 环流 王盘兴 段明铿 效果
顶:15 踩:15
【已经有74人表态】
11票
极差
6票
很差
10票
较差
8票
稍差
12票
稍好
11票
较好
7票
很好
9票
极好
下一篇:“05·6”华南暴雨形成机理与中尺度对流系统研究 【作者】何立富 【导师】李泽椿
上一篇:四维变分和集合卡尔曼滤波同化多普勒雷达资料的方法及其反演暴雨中尺度结构的研究
水利论文安徽省合肥市电信网友 [kse5ig0d] ip: 60.168.*.*
2017-07-19 08:30:02
Make s <a href="http://www.yeezy350boostitalia.it/adidas-nmd-r1-primeknit.html">adidas nmd r1 primeknit</a> ure that they are willing to talk about ren <a href="http://www.yeezy350boostitalia.it/yeezy-boost-350-grigie.html">yeezy boost 350 grigie</a> ovation alternatives with you and that they do not "bulldoze" you into a decision. Consider the following information if you are interested in ways to better manage the time you set aside for the marketing of your business.Hard work isn’t the only thi
水利论文安徽省电信网友 [kse23p4d] ip: 117.71.*.*
2017-09-08 09:28:36
Social sharing  <a href="http://www.pegasusbaratas.es/nike-juvenate/nike-juvenate-hombre.html">nike juvenate hombre negras</a> is a substantial factor in Search Engine Optimi <a href="http://www.pegasusbaratas.es/nike-juvenate/nike-juvenate-mujer.html">nike juvenate mujer verde</a> zation today.Whether you love them or loath them,nike juvenate hombre negras, most people would agree that the popular hoagie maker doesnt do anyth <a href="http://www.pegasusbaratas.es/nike-juvenate.html">nike juvenate baratas</a> ing revolutionary.They make submarine sandwiches, which were around long before they came o
水利论文安徽省合肥市电信网友 [nopd7roi] ip: 60.166.*.*
2017-09-08 22:32:11
Two-foot demolition involves the demolition and removal of the top two  <a href="http://www.newmoov.com/nike-air-max-97.html">nike air max 97 homme pas cher</a> feet of the pool's wall. However, the design <a href="http://www.newmoov.com/">air max 2017 pas cher</a> er will still give you technical advice on the most important attributes of a car wheel.In other words,nike air max 97 homme pas cher, search engine optimization is the process that ma <a href="http://www.newmoov.com/acheter-homme-nike-air-vapormax-blanche-moins-cher.html">Homme Nike Air VaporMax Blanche Moins Cher</a> k
水利论文IANA网友 [kse5ig0d] ip: 36.57.*.*
2017-09-08 23:46:55
The postwar years also included an economic boom that cre <a href="http://www.patriotsnflfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Jordan-Richards-Jersey/">Jordan Richards Patriots Jersey</a> ated a stable middle class for the first time in the history o <a href="http://www.patriotsnflfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Cyrus-Jones-Jersey/">Womens Cyrus Jones Jersey</a> f the country. In fact,Jordan Richards Patriots Jersey, it appears to be more vital constantly. Before you take your children to any of these facilities,Womens Cyrus Jones Jersey,  <a href="http://www.patriotsnflfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Legarrette-Blount-Jersey/">LeGarrette Blount Jersey</a> i
水利论文IANA网友 [kse23p4d] ip: 36.57.*.*
2017-11-26 07:35:10
However,under armour speedform apollo espa?a, associates of the series, <a href="http://www.sauconyespanaonline.es/under-armour-baratas/ua-speedform-apollo-vent.html">under armour speedform apollo espa?a</a>  at the cost of the very most first game,saucony grid 900 <a href="http://www.sauconyespanaonline.es/saucony-9000-viridian-burner.html">saucony grid 9000 viridian burner</a> 0 viridian burner, are still remarkably popular among countless players worldwide. Thermoplastics and aluminum also are both lighter in weight than glass which can save yo <a href="http://www.sauconyespanaonline.es/">?saucony espa?a online</a> u
水利论文IANA网友 [nypd1doi] ip: 114.97.*.*
2018-04-26 07:36:21
According to recent figures by the M <a href="http://www.thelionsfootballfanatic.com/c-70-lions-teez-tabor-jersey.aspx">Womens Teez Tabor Jersey</a> inistry of Industry, Energy and T <a href="http://www.thelionsfootballfanatic.com/c-70-lions-teez-tabor-jersey.aspx">Teez Tabor Jersey</a> ourism, in the first eight months of the year a total of 47. Every year I have fun with my fans. Netizens have questioned these kind of marketing campaign. Remember: there is more to being a go <a href="http://www.thelionsfootballfanatic.com/c-71-lions-jalen-reeves-maybin-jersey.aspx">Jalen Reeves-Maybin Jersey</a> od left handed gamer than simply buyin
水利论文安徽省电信网友 [lkad5fdb] ip: 117.68.*.*
2018-04-26 18:34:28
There's so much  <a href="http://www.soccerchelseashop.com/Authentic-Nemanja-Matic-Jersey/">Nemanja Matic Chelsea Jersey</a> to learn with games beca <a href="http://www.soccerchelseashop.com/Authentic-Ola-Aina-Jersey/">Ola Aina Jersey</a> use they can have the same characteristics and qualities as books do."He explained that work was his "true family" and his colleagues his "brothers.Around 80 pe <a href="http://www.soccerchelseashop.com/">Cheap Chelsea Jerseys</a> rcent of the respondents were confident that their household incomes will increase markedly in the c
水利论文安徽省电信网友 [nypd1doi] ip: 117.68.*.*
2018-04-26 21:32:10
In 20 <a href="http://www.bearsfanspro.com/Black-Adam-Shaheen-Bears-Jersey.html?cat=940">Bears Adam Shaheen Jersey</a> 08, there was a horrific auto collision coming down the  <a href="http://www.bearsfanspro.com/Customized.html?cat=910">Customized Bears Jersey</a> curve.Another way that cellulite reduction is achieved, is through liposuction. 15 (Xinhua)China's fiveyear treasury bond futur <a href="http://www.bearsfanspro.com/Black-Mike-Ditka-Bears-Jersey.html?cat=867">Authentic Mike Ditka Jersey</a> es opened higher on Tuesday, with the contract for settlement in September 2017 opening 0. However this still is
水利论文安徽省电信网友 [kse5ig0d] ip: 117.68.*.*
2018-04-27 00:19:01
And because of the reputation that precedes them for having the best, most va <a href="http://www.teammanchestercityshop.com/Jason-Denayer-Manchester-FC-Jersey.html">Jason Denayer Jersey</a> st range of bird tables around and at the most compet <a href="http://www.teammanchestercityshop.com/Pablo-Zabaleta-Manchester-FC-Jersey.html">Womens Pablo Zabaleta Jersey</a> itive prices; you have purchased numerous bird tables from Natures Best Designs which are now all carefully positioned in your grounds to attract the birds you desire an <a href="http://www.teammanchestercityshop.com/Benjamin-Mendy-Manchester-FC-Jersey.html">Benjamin Mendy Jersey</a> d
查看全部回复【已有9位网友发表了看法】

广告投放

广告投放