你的位置:水利论文 >> 论文 >> 江苏省 >> 南京信息工程大学 >> 详细内容 在线投稿

双涡旋自组织现象和台风暴雨预测研究 【作者】沈武 【导师】罗哲贤

热度67票 浏览90次 【共12条评论】【我要评论 时间:2005年7月01日 22:37

h)g7U-? J0q J }i0涡旋自组织现象和台风暴雨预测研究

,j$q0G+f;O2A0水利论文8\C3ul ` pv C

【作者】沈武导师罗哲贤
]0G:B1qX1Vz0【作者基本信息】南京信息工程大学,气象学,2005年,博士水利论文k-Y%I.\jd-O"b

,N&J[iV0
gW/DC,e$y0【中文摘要】 目前,台风异常路径和暴雨的机理,以及如何开展精细预报是气象学家研究的难点。 双涡相互作用使台风路径变得异常和复杂,也使暴雨预报难度增加。 双涡相互作用动力学和双涡自组织动力学理论的成果,可以为这类灾害性天气的预测提供科学认识,提高台风异常路径和暴雨预报能力,开展精细预报。 本论文要研究的问题是:首先,从双涡旋相互作用的动力学途径去研究双涡合并,以及特别是涡合并的临界距离判据问题;其次,从双涡自组织的动力学途径来研究涡旋自组织组织问题,就是一个较大尺度的涡是如何一步一步地组织起来的,以及组织以后涡的结构及其特征;最后,通过两个个例诊断分析,初步建立应用涡自组织成果预报台风路径和暴雨的思路。 研究结果表明,双涡相互作用可导致两者的气旋性互旋、相互吸引或排斥、西涡旋的停滞打转、东西双涡的合并增强等,使涡旋运动变得异常、复杂。影响双涡合并的条件不只是初始双涡中心之间的临界距离,还可能与初始涡旋的非轴对称结构有关。线性条件下,准对称分布状态的临界距离是300km;非线性条件下,准对称分布状态的临界距离是400km;在非轴对称状态下,同样的临界距离双涡并不一定合并。在准轴对称和非轴对称二类初始涡旋...更多条件下,经过涡自组织的演变,终态涡的内核区和外区的涡量来源不同,过程也不同。 在台风、暴雨系统中存在涡自组织现象。本文通过对9802号和9909号热带气旋个例诊断分析,初步建立了以涡自组织理论指导预报的思路,就是预报对象从大尺度环流系统、天气尺度系统转到涡系统的转变。预报对象空间尺度的精细化,对气象信息资料的分辨率提出了更高的需求,也使精细预报成为可能,具有挑战性。实际预报工作中,从天气尺度和物理诊断角度开展精细预报,缺乏有力的理论支撑。涡相互作用和自组织动力学可能会成为揭示异常天气气候事件的一个新的理论基点和切入点,也可能带来预报思路的革新。 本论文的结果对提高预报异常台风的能力和准确率是有益的,有非常重要的理论意义和应用价值。  还原

-GO R3F"DmM0

B/^Bu&U p0【英文摘要】 The interaction of binary vortices can result in either the abnormal track of tropical cyclone (TC) or TC-related torrential rainfall, both of which are difficult to forecast. Three issues are addressed in this dissertation to understand the phenomena in the context of binary vortex interaction and vortex self-organization dynamics.First of all, the binary vortex interaction is studied with a shallow-water model to find out the factors that can affect the mergence of two vortices. Six numerical experiments are carried out with different vortex structure, strength, horizontal size or distance between the two vortices. Results show that the interaction of two vortices can make them cyclonically rotate around each other, away from each other, close-up or merge into one stronger vortex. The initial distance between the two vortices and the initial asymmetric distributions are found to be the two kinds of factors affecting vortices merging. The critical distance for mergence is 300 km for s...更多ymmetric vortices and 400 km for quasi-symmetric vortices, while the situation becomes complicated for asymmetric vortices with the critical distance changing with the asymmetric distributions.Secondly, nineteen experiments are performed using the quasi-geostrophic barotropic vorticity equation in the context of advection dynamics to explore how a larger scale vortex self-organize. Results show that the self-organization process can be classified into two types. One is that the relative vorticity of the merged vortex banking in the inner region is caused by initially two axisymmetric vortices while its spiral band rooted in the stretch of the relative vorticity fringe wing. The other is that initial elliptical vortex contributes to the relative vorticity piling-up in the merged vortex inner region and initial eccentric vortex stretch and rupture time and again gives rise to the spiral band in the outer region.Thirdly, two typical cases are diagnosed to explore the vortex self-organization phenomenon and its role in the TC abnormal track or TC-related heavy rain. A new way of thinking in the forecast is established with the predictand changing from large-, or synoptic scale system tovortex system on the basis of vortex dynamics, which makes the 'fine forecast' possible by scaling down the predictand.In conclusion, the vortex self-organization dynamics provide us an efficient tool to understand the mechanism of TC abnormal track and torrential rainfall. The output of this study can be helpful in improving the forecast skill.  还原

,?0MF2\yL3j+|y"zG0

{9D.j3^1u Y MT0【中文关键词】 双涡旋; 合并; 自组织; 台风预测水利论文 u)mI&g2a6\9R@4m&J X
【英文关键词】 Binary vortices; Mergence; Self-organization; Tropical cyclone
cDs'U"V*R;p-d0a0

1d(D9]9~Y'k0水利论文vT`w:fA/F b'`

 

7I:\ [r/^gX:U}0
TAG: 导师 罗哲贤 台风 涡旋 沈武
顶:11 踩:9
【已经有48人表态】
3票
极差
4票
很差
7票
较差
7票
稍差
6票
稍好
7票
较好
7票
很好
7票
极好
下一篇:暴雨天气动力过程及强降水增幅机理的研究 【作者】濮梅娟 【导师】陆维松
上一篇:暴雨型滑坡灾害形成机理及预测方法研究 【作者】魏丽 【导师】郑有飞
水利论文IANA网友 [k0ey9cko] ip: 223.240.*.*
2016-04-20 21:15:12
Soon in the future,www.blaze <a href="http://www.blazerzwart.nl/nike-blazer-leopard.html">www.blazerzwart.nl/nike-blazer-leopard.html</a> rzwart.nl/nike-blazer- <a href="http://www.blazerzwart.nl/">nike blazer nederland</a> leopard.html, you will need a blu ray dvd player with wireless.com testpage1 node 7#comment-51783  http:  islandask. The total amount saved is when you will employ the on-line world with the feature. Use o <a href="http://www.blazerzwart.nl/nike-blazer-flower-print/nike-blazer-flower-low.html">nike blazer low dames bloemen</a> nly those products compatible with the sealco
水利论文IANA网友 [kse5ig0d] ip: 223.240.*.*
2016-05-10 06:17:07
Another inside respond to an aging public, these start off the actual robot "girlfriend", it isn't best walking thighs and legs, any degree of operate technological know-how probable for the type of tool offer as well as also hand an area of the sports pointing to 脙搂脗聛脗碌脙娄脗麓脗禄 sensible, just like hu
水利论文安徽省电信网友 [k0ey9cko] ip: 117.67.*.*
2016-08-23 23:39:47
You're in a "going out of busines <a href="http://www.asicssneakersoutlet.nl/asics-gel-lyte-3-online-kopen.html"> asics gel lyte 3 kopen</a> s sale" and everything is on the table. I have used it for various area <a href="http://www.asicssneakersoutlet.nl/asics-sneakers-korting/asics-gel-saga.html"> asics gel saga kopen</a> s of health with excellent results (including and not limited only to digestion and digestive system function). One of their secrets is that they give a lot to the community.  asics gel lyte  <a href="http://www.asicssneakersoutlet.nl/"> asics sneakers outlet</a> 3 kop
水利论文安徽省电信网友 [nypd1doi] ip: 117.68.*.*
2016-10-21 12:08:35
A exclusive corp <a href="http://www.teammanchesterunitedshop.com/Authentic-David-De-Gea-Manchester-United-Jersey/">David de Gea Manchester United Jersey</a> oration may possibly be the situation your greatest your job for mor <a href="http://www.teammanchesterunitedshop.com/Authentic-Juan-Mata-Manchester-United-Jersey/">Juan Mata Jersey</a> e information on should aspect as well as all your household. A. The general public was unaware that Reiki energy could be directed from a distance. Your goal should be to have a website that mak <a href="http://www.teammanchesterunitedshop.com/Authentic-Morgan-Schneiderlin-Manchester-United-Jersey/">Morgan Schneiderlin Jersey</a> es a positive impact
水利论文安徽省电信网友 [dj2gyqgr4c] ip: 117.68.*.*
2016-10-21 14:53:47
3.People desire real proof  <a href="http://www.teamgermanyshop.com/Bastian-Schweinsteiger-World-Cup-Jersey.html">Bastian Schweinsteiger Shirt</a> and they will take the time to analyze your testimonial to make sur <a href="http://www.teamgermanyshop.com/Marc-Andre-Ter-Stegen-World-Cup-Jersey.html">Marc-Andre ter Stegen Germany Jersey</a> e if its true.After Jeter briefly thanked George Steinbrenner, his family,Bastian Schweinsteiger Shirt, friends and teammates,Marc-Andre ter Stegen Germany Jer <a href="http://www.teamgermanyshop.com/Matthias-Ginter-World-Cup-Jersey.html">Matthias Ginter Jersey</a> sey, the 40-year-old captain turned his attenti
水利论文安徽省合肥市电信网友 [kse23p4d] ip: 60.168.*.*
2017-02-05 15:11:24
Steroid products profiles, steroids experience and man <a href="http://www.theusasoccershop.com/Soccer-Gyasi-Zardes-USA-Jersey/"> Gyasi Zardes USA Jersey</a> y other usefu <a href="http://www.theusasoccershop.com/Soccer-Matt-Besler-USA-Jersey/"> Matt Besler Jersey</a> l information for bodybuilders. Toys and games are much much better for the. After you've got your acne cleared up it's critical to carry on together with the remedy which is doing work so it will not r <a href="http://www.theusasoccershop.com/Soccer-Alejandro-Bedoya-USA-Jersey/"> Alejandro Bedoya Jersey</a> eturn..  Gyasi Zardes USA Jerse
水利论文安徽省合肥市电信网友 [dj2gyqgr4c] ip: 60.168.*.*
2017-02-06 03:01:39
Has a combo CDRW DVD duo layer optical driv <a href="http://www.chaussuresnbsolde.fr/new-balance-580/femme-new-balance-580.html">new balance 580 femme rose</a> e.9. Because families handle the <a href="http://www.chaussuresnbsolde.fr/new-balance-1400.html">new balance 1400 homme bleu</a>  pcs much longer the odds of hard disk trouble improve. They design and create products that are durable and will last through whatever hardships they come across. Shane Victorino won the game  <a href="http://www.chaussuresnbsolde.fr/">new balance soldes</a> with a go ahead single in the 10
水利论文安徽省电信网友 [nypd1doi] ip: 117.68.*.*
2017-05-21 21:51:35
In <a href="http://www.supercolorsuperstar.fr/nike-free-flyknit-pas-cher-soldes/nike-free-4-0-flyknit.html">nike free 4.0 flyknit homme</a> stead,nike free 4.0 fl <a href="http://www.supercolorsuperstar.fr/nike-juvenate-blanche.html">nike juvenate blanche femme</a> yknit homme, turn on your computer and log in to one of the many websites now offering 24 hour gaming and play casino,nike juvenate blanche femme, poker online!The immediacy of the internet has opened up a brave new wor <a href="http://www.supercolorsuperstar.fr/adidas-superstar-supercolor-pas-cher/adidas-supercolor-bleu.html">adidas supercolor bleu ciel femme</a> ld for the would be gambler. These guys are not growing r
水利论文IANA网友 [dlsf08ec] ip: 36.57.*.*
2017-09-09 17:05:41
They need to <a href="http://www.flyknittrainerssale.com/cheap-nike-free-flyknit-sale/nike-free-4-0-flyknit-cheap.html">nike free 4.0 flyknit sale</a>  be seated and catered to so that they fe <a href="http://www.flyknittrainerssale.com/nike-free-5-0/nike-free-5-0-v4.html">nike free 5.0 v4 sale</a> el the warmth of being welcomed cordially. I've been operating in just profits strain establishing the very last 7 a long time of my experienced profession and the just one irrefutable legislation I recognized is that T <a href="http://www.flyknittrainerssale.com/nike-free-4-0/nike-free-4-0-v3.html">nike free 4.0 v3 sale</a> hose people operate nike fre
水利论文安徽省合肥市电信网友 [lkad5fdb] ip: 60.168.*.*
2017-11-29 10:13:34
When he came back from the hospital, he was in a dormant condition and he <a href="http://www.soccerasromashop.com/Authentic-Wojciech-Szczesny-Jersey/">Wojciech Szczesny AS Roma Jersey</a>  had no interest left i <a href="http://www.soccerasromashop.com/Authentic-Gerson-Jersey/">Gerson AS Roma Jersey</a> n the life as his both the legs were damaged very much badly.And finally,Wojciech Szczesny AS Roma Jersey, children often fail to own their misbehavior when their parents yell and scream at them. With an <a href="http://www.soccerasromashop.com/Authentic-Mario-Rui-Jersey/">Mario Rui Jersey</a>
水利论文IANA网友 [kidc5b0a] ip: 36.57.*.*
2018-01-16 06:49:45
The layout of your sit <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseyscheap.cc/">Cheap NFL Jerseys Free Shipping</a> e should be simple enough for visitors to use, wit <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseyscheap.cc/">Cheap NFL Jerseys</a> h clear Cheap NFL Jerseys Free Shipping instruction. In some cases you may hear music from your computer randomly.Maximizing the use of digital technology (helps save paper, hen <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseyscheap.cc/">Wholesale Jerseys From China</a> ce prevents deforestation)Adapting the Green Techno
水利论文安徽省电信网友 [kse23p4d] ip: 117.68.*.*
2018-04-21 23:30:51
They can <a href="http://www.cheapcoachbagssaleclearance.us.com/">cheap coach clearance</a>  also subscribe in the internet by filling up the complete informati <a href="http://www.cheapcoachbagssaleclearance.us.com/">cheap coach handbags sale</a> on in their online form.You need to memor remain delighted in what one particular carry out now, furthermore just one serve opinion bear on the way to  <a href="http://www.cheapcoachbagssaleclearance.us.com/">cheap coach handbags clearance</a> stick proud underneath what somebody else told you would or would comment
查看全部回复【已有12位网友发表了看法】

广告投放

广告投放