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江淮梅雨异常的数值模拟及土壤湿度资料同化对其模拟的改进 【作者】胡娅敏 【导师】…

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江淮梅雨异常的数值模拟土壤湿度资料同化对其模拟的改进

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【作者】胡娅敏导师】丁一汇水利论文HX)t8nYSuX u
【作者基本信息】南京信息工程大学,气象学,2007年,博士

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&PF9dHn}J%l e0【中文摘要】 采用定义的“广义梅雨评定标准”研究了江淮地区(28~34°N,110~122°E)梅雨期降水的气候特征。并利用区域气候模式(BCCRegCM 1.0,以下简称RegCM)模拟了1991~2005年中国夏季气候的异常变化,分析了区域模式对江淮梅雨的模拟能力。同时,研究了春季土壤湿度初值异常对夏季气候的影响,最后采用Nudging张弛法对土壤湿度初始场进行了同化及模拟影响的试验。本文的主要结论概括如下:(1)采用Cressman客观分析方法得到我国1954~2005年0.5°×0.5°的逐日降水格点资料,定义了一个江淮地区的“广义梅雨评定标准”,该标准可以基本反映出包括长江下游和淮河流域的江淮地区的梅雨特征。REOF分析得出,江淮梅雨具有江淮型、江南型、淮河型和两湖型4种主要模态,近十几年江南梅雨型呈减少、而淮河梅雨型呈增加趋势。(2)周期分析得到江淮梅雨主要存在2~3、6~8、12~15和18~20年的周期变化,其中的准两年周期主要是受TBO的影响。对江淮梅雨进行突变分析,发现其在1965年前后、70年代末~80年代初和90年代初发生了三次显著的气候跃变。(3) RegCM对中国夏季...更多气候态模拟能力的研究表明,该模式能较好地模拟夏季平均环流场;RegCM对地表温度的量级和空间分布形式的模拟较好,且东部地区的模拟较西部好;RegCM基本上能模拟出降水的空间分布,不考虑西南和青藏高原地区的虚假降水,其它地区的模拟偏差在2.6%~73%范围内变化,对夏季风雨带推进的模拟存在一定缺陷,但对6月以后降水的北进模拟较好,尤其是对江淮梅雨的模拟;此外,RegCM能够较好地模拟出陆面过程变量的空间分布。(4)区域气候模式具有模拟江淮梅雨年际变化的能力,对大部分正常梅雨年模拟较好,尤其是能模拟出1996、1998、1999年的强梅雨。就15年平均状态而言,模式模拟的入梅日和出梅日分别较观测提前,梅雨长度缩短3天,梅雨强度模拟偏弱。(5)通过对观测资料进行分析,得出春季江淮地区的表层(根区)土壤湿度与夏季地表温度呈反(正)相关,而江淮地区的表层和根区土壤湿度和夏季降水呈现正相关。用RegCM对不同层次的土壤湿度初值进行了敏感性试验,结果指出不同深度的土壤湿度初值加倍(减半)都能使夏季平均地表温度降低(升高);弱季风年整层和表层的土壤湿度对降水影响较大,而强季风年根区和表层对降水的影响较大;土壤湿度初值无论加倍还是减半,均使强、弱季风年中国东部大部分季风区的降水增加,且土壤湿度减半造成的夏季降水反而在区域范围和量值上均比土壤湿度加倍试验要大,弱季风年的这种影响更明显。(6)采用GSWP2土壤湿度进行初值场资料同化,发现能显著的改善强季风年夏季中国地区地表温度和江淮地区降水量的模拟。  还原

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【英文摘要】 According to daily grid precipitation data, a generalized Meiyu criteria has beendefined in Yangtze-Huaihe region (28~34°N, 110~122°E). And the updated criteriaare applied to analyze the precipitation characteristics during the Meiyu period.What's more, the abnormal variability of summer climate in China during 1991~2005is simulated by means of BCCRegCM1.0 (RegCM for short). Then according to theabove simulating results, the timing of onset and ending is defined and theperformance on simulating Meiyu in Yangtze-Huaihe region is analyzed for the recent15a. Furthermore, we discuss the effect of the initial value of spring soil moisture onthe following summer climate with the observation data and the simulated results,respectively. In the end, by using of the Newtonian Nudging method, we carry out theassimilation and the influence experiments on the initial filed of soil moisture.To summarize, the main results of this study are as follows:(1) By means of Cressman's objective analysis met...更多hod, a 0.5°×0.5°grid pointdaily precipitation dataset of China for 1954~2005 has been obtained. Then, ageneralized Meiyu criterion has been define to investigate the Meiyu precipitationfeatures over the whole Yangtze-Huaihe region, including the Yangtze River and theHuaihe Basin Region. The updated criterion is applied to analyze the precipitationcharacteristics during the Meiyu period in the Yangtze-Huaihe region. Using RotatedEmpirical Orthogonal Function (REOF), there are four kind Meiyu precipitationpatterns in different regions, including the Yangtze-Huaihe region, the south of theYangtze River, the Huaihe River, as well as the Dongting Lake and the Poyang Lakevalley. The research is found that the Meiyu pattern in the south of the Yangtze Riveris decreasing, while the pattern in the Huaihe River is increasing.(2) The Meiyu parameters have an about 2~3a, 6~8a, 12~15a and 18~20adominating periods. The approximate 2~3a significant period of Meiyu parametersmay reflect the effects of Tropospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (TBO). Threeobvious abrupt climatic changes have happened in the mid of 1960's, the late 1970'sthrough early 1980's and the early 1990's.(3) By using RegCM, the summer climatologic characters over China during1991~2005 are simulated. The research shows RegCM can simulate East-Asian meancirculation field. What's more, the simulated magnitude and spatial distribution ofsurface temperature is good agreement with observation. But the results show thebetter performance in the East China than in the West China. At the same time,RegCM can basically reproduce the spatial distribution of summer precipitation.Regardless of the spurious precipitation in Southwest region and Tibet Plateau, the departure between the observations and the simulated results vary within the range of2.6~73% in other regions. As for the march of the major seasonal rain belts, thoughbeing some deficiency for the pre-summer flood season to some extent in South China,there are better performances for the march towards the North of major rain belts afterJune, particularly for the simulation of Meiyu precipitation. Further, RegCM canbetter simulate the variables of the spatial distribution of land surface process insummer China.(4) RegCM is of the ability to simulate the inter-annual change ofYangtze-Huaihe Meiyu with preferable capability for most of the normal Meiyu years,especially for the strong Meiyu year of 1996a, 1998a and 1999a. In term of averagestatus for recent 15a Meiyu simulation, the timings of onset and ending occur earlier,Meiyu duration does 3-days earlier and Meiyu intensity index is weaker comparingwith the outcome defined by the observations.(5) With observation analyses, we can obtain that the surface (root) zone soilmoisture on spring in Yangtze-Huaihe River region is inversely (directly) proportionalto the surface temperature in the following summer. However, both the surface androot zone soil moisture on spring vary in the direct ratio of the summer precipitationin Yangtze-Huaihe River region.At the same time, the sensitivity experiments about the effect of the soil moistureon China climate are carrying out. Results show that:①As for the surfacetemperature, the double (halving) experiments of soil moisture initial value on April1st in different levels make the surface temperature reduce (increase) in followingsummer without exception.②For precipitation, the soil moisture of total (root) andsurface zone has an higher effect on the summer rainfall under the control of weak(strong) monsoon. Both the double and halving experiments will strengthen theprecipitation in most East China under the influence of strong monsoon, while theprecipitation caused by the halving experiment are much more than the equivalent bythe double test in the aspect of region range and magnitude.(6) Introducing the Newtonian nudging assimilation method with GSWP2 soilmoisture data in RegCM, we can distinctly improve the simulation of surfacetemperature in China and precipitation in Yangtze-Huaihe region under the influenceof the strong summer monsoon while inconspicuous improvement for the weaksummer monsoon years.  还原

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H m1^u!ZG n6B E0【中文关键词】 广义梅雨评定标准; 江淮梅雨分型; 区域气候模式; 土壤湿度; 资料同化
j2a6tH@([0【英文关键词】 Generalized Meiyu criteria; Classification of Meiyu precipitation in Yangtze-Huaihe region; BCCRegCM 1.0; Soil moisture; Data assimilation水利论文8CEn)~ Jbg!k5U

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TAG: 数值模拟 江淮 梅雨 胡娅敏 土壤湿度
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