你的位置:水利论文 >> 论文 >> 江苏省 >> 南京信息工程大学 >> 详细内容 在线投稿

短期气候数值预测的误差订正和超级集合方法研究【作者】秦正坤 【导师】孙照渤; 林…

热度147票 浏览91次 【共5条评论】【我要评论 时间:2007年7月01日 22:26
水利论文Z5V\S#`T

短期气候数值预测的误差订正和超级集合方法研究

I;F9zk)E)Z-@1Wg)x0

a9f:T$j3kG4d0【作者】秦正坤导师孙照渤; 林朝晖水利论文.HK0G K l"Zo
【作者基本信息】南京信息工程大学,气象学,2007年,博士水利论文BM U\*cE

7or7E,Zjb7Vu0水利论文:i%x*ga|@Nl~
【中文摘要】 数值预测是短期气候预测的发展方向。但是目前数值模式还存在一定的偏差和不足,因此利用数理统计方法对模式预测结果进行处理就成了目前模式水平下提高短期气候数值预测水平的重要方法之一。本论文利用3个不同版本的IAP大气模式多年回报结果、DEMETER计划的7个海气耦合模式回报结果,以及日本Frontier的高分辨率海气耦合模式SINTEX-F的多年回报资料,在分析比较各模式特点的基础上,提出了一个改进的模态订正方法,检验了模态订正方法对IAP模式在东亚地区季节降水预测的改善作用;同时由于单模式预测存在不可避免的不足,在利用订正改进单模式效果的基础上,论文提出了一个新的超级集合方法,并分别进行了热带和副热带地区的集合预测试验。最后还利用IAP不同版本模式,结合已有的订正和超级集合方法,建立了一个IAP短期气候超级集合数值预测系统。全文主要得到以下的结论:1.改进了模态订正方法,并且对东亚地区各季节降水进行了模态订正试验。模态订正方法是利用模态分析方法对变量场进行分解,通过对分解所得时间系数的拟合调整得出订正后的结果。通过时间系数调整和进一步考虑余差,改进后的模态订正方法不仅能够表现出明显高于模式...更多原始回报的预测技巧,与原有的IAP模式订正方法相比也有明显的优势。订正后各个季节降水的距平相关系数(ACC)平均值都可以达到0.2以上,其中冬季的订正回报平均ACC可以达到0.4以上。多年的订正效果也表明模态订正方法具有较好的稳定性和实用价值。但是由于变量时间连续性的不同使得模态订正方法对高度场和温度场的订正效果不佳,另外对降水的订正也存在技巧上限的现象。2.提出了一个新的超级集合预测方法。由于模式系统误差和各类随机误差的存在,单个模式预测存在不可避免的不足,因此在利用订正改进单个模式预测效果的基础上,论文提出了一个基于集合Kalman滤波的超级集合方法,利用多个模式预测结果进行超级集合预测。理想试验表明基于集合Kalman滤波的同化集合能够更好的消除随机误差对模式权重选取的影响,从而获得更准确的模式权重,更好的结合各个模式的优点,同时同化集合从整个预测空间选取模式最优权重,避免了原有的单点进行的回归拟合和平均集合引起的局地化现象。热带和副热带地区的夏季降水的实际集合预测试验结果也证明了同化集合结果明显优于单个模式结果,而且与已有的等权与不等权集合方法相比也有较为明显的优势。3.建立了一个LAP短期气候超级集合预测系统。在研究订正和超级集合改进数值预测效果的基础上,根据IAP模式在东亚地区预测较好的特点和实时预测系统的独立性,论文利用不同版本的IAP模式,结合上述订正方法和超级集合方法,初步建立了一个IAP短期气候集合预测系统。首先对模式原始结果进行模态订正,然后利用新的同化集合方法得到最后的集合预测结果。东亚地区夏季降水的集合回报试验结果表明:同化集合有出较好的回报效果,其平均ACC可以达到0.3以上,明显优于单个模式订正前后的预测技巧,与平均集合和回归集合相比也有一定的提高。论文的创新点主要包括:1,论文提出一个改进的模态订正方法,并首次将模态订正方法应用于我国的实时气候预测中,明显提高了IAP的短期气候数值预测技巧;2,针对单模式预测的不足论文进行了超级集合预测方面的研究,提出了一个新的基于集合Kalman滤波的超级集合方法,并取得了明显的预测改善效果;3,最后本论文还首次建立了一个多模式超级集合预测系统。  还原水利论文Y!XNI'Jv&J

:X.S/y R9l1q |0【英文摘要】 Numerical prediction is the most effective method for short-term climateprediction in future. But now, owing to the deficiency of the climate model, statisticalmethods are used to improve the performance of numerical model is an important wayto increase the accuracy of numerical prediction. Using secular ensemble hindcastresults of different versions of IAP climate model, seven air-sea coupled models of theDEMETER projection, and high resolution air-sea coupled model, SINTEX-F ofFrontier, the paper introduces and improves a kind of correction method based onmodal analysis, and verifies the effect of this kind of modal correction method on IAPclimate model's performance on predicting East Asian seasonal precipitation, and then,due to the unavoidable shortcoming of predicting by one single model, the paperintroduces a new superensemble method, effect of the new ensemble method ontropical and subtropical zone is verified respectively; At last, using the differentversion of IAP climate mod...更多el, correction method and superensemble method, an IAPsuperensemble seasonal prediction system is established preliminarily. Main resultsare summarized as followed:1, The correction methods based on modal analysis can improve obviously theperformance of IAP climate model on each seasonal precipitation of East Asian area.The correction method can improve the predictability of numerical model notably,correction prediction shows remarkable higher skill score than not only the originalresults of model, but also those of old correction method. After correction, the averageof anomaly correction coefficient (ACC) between hindcast and observation of eachseason precipitation is bigger than 0.2, and in comparison, improvement effect is mostsignificant in Spring, the correction forecast has highest skill score in Winter, theaverage of ACC reaches 0.47 and there is also notable improvement on the predictionof summer precipitation. Secular correction effect also shows that the kind ofcorrection method has well stability and use value. Although the correction methodhas good correction effect on precipitation forecast, it does not well in the correctionon air temperature and geopotential height because of the difference in temporalcontinuity of modal analysis. Besides, the skill of precipitation forecast correction alsohas an upper limit.2, An new superensemble method is created in this paper. Because of the exist ofmodel system bias and random bias, there is some unavoidable deficiency for single model prediction. So that after the skill of single model is improved by modalcorrection method, Combining the merits of equal-weight ensemble methods(averageensemble) and unequal-weight ensemble methods(regression ensemble), a newsuperensemble prediction method is established based on Ensemble Kalmanfilter(assimilation ensemble). Ideal experiments show that, under the influence ofrandom error, assimilation ensemble can obtain more precise weights than regressionensemble, and then take good advantage of merits of each model. At the same time,by including spatial features of variables, assimilation ensemble can avoid the spatialdiscontinuation caused by ensemble in single point. Results of real ensemblepredictive experiments on summer rainfall in tropical and subtropical area also provethe superiority of assimilation ensemble, assimilation ensemble has increasedpredictive skill compared to the raw model output, ideal experiments and realensemble prediction both suggest that assimilation ensemble is superior to regressionensemble, and ensemble predictive experiments with different number modelsindicate that the dispersion of samples increases as the number of models grows, itwill improve the performance of both assimilation ensemble and average ensemble,but when models which have different merits are included, assimilation ensemble willhas stabilized higher skill than average ensemble.3, IAP short-term climate superensemble prediction system is establishedpreliminarily. According to good predictive skill of IAP atmospheric models in EastAsian area and the independence of real-time prediction system, the paper creates asuperensemble prediction system using three IAP models, modal correction method,and assimilation superensemble method. Utilizing secular hindcast results of the threeversion models, the performance of the system in East Asian area are verified, resultsalso show that assimilation ensemble has higher predictive skill, the ACC reaches0.33, and it is not only bigger than the raw model output and correction result ofsingle model, there is also some increase compare to regression ensemble based onregression and average.A modal correction method is investigated and improved, and it is the first timethat modal correction method is introduced in the real-time climate prediction inChina, and the prediction skill of IAP is increased obviously. But most important isthat, in according to the unavoidable deficiency of prediction made by one singlemodel, the paper attaches more attention to superensemble prediction, a new superensemble prediction method is introduce based on ensemble Kahnan filter, andthe superensemble shows notable improvement effect; at last, a superensembleclimate prediction system of China is established firstly.  还原水利论文/S&x&n n-Tb$[

水利论文R9Rf-_)j}^

【中文关键词】 订正方法; 预测潜力; 超级集合方法; 集合Kalman滤波水利论文-r7V"u'@~@Oc$O
【英文关键词】 correction method; potential predictability; super ensemble method; ensemble Kalman filter
+X1[AGly @gU0

G Y2~m7B;U7W[$B _'N0水利论文X\+dzY Z

 

5R;j rX6s0T0
TAG: 导师 数值 孙照渤 秦正坤 误差
顶:17 踩:21
【已经有109人表态】
15票
极差
12票
很差
13票
较差
12票
稍差
15票
稍好
13票
较好
13票
很好
16票
极好
下一篇:热带扰动引发华南前汛期暴雨的机理研究 【作者】赵玉春 【导师】李泽椿; 肖子牛
上一篇:台风涡旋自组织过程的研究 【作者】滕代高 【导师】罗哲贤
水利论文安徽省电信网友 [dlsf08ec] ip: 117.68.*.*
2016-12-20 14:15:25
If you simply must exercise, tr <a href="http://www.officialnewyorkmetsstore.com/MICHAEL-CONFORTO-Jersey/"> Michael Conforto Authentic Jersey</a> y non-impact exercises of the upper body, like resistive exercise band exercis <a href="http://www.officialnewyorkmetsstore.com/STEVEN-MATZ-Jersey/"> Steven Matz Jersey</a> e or exercise ball exercises.Sitting and standing as straight as is comfortably possible will help to reduce the effects of nerve irritation and get your nerves healing quicker and more comp <a href="http://www.officialnewyorkmetsstore.com/Chris-Young-Jersey/"> Chris Young Jersey</a> l
水利论文IANA网友 [dj2gyqgr4c] ip: 36.57.*.*
2017-10-01 03:58:35
However the cut down in work props up opposite.Inflation : A consi <a href="http://www.baseballrockiesstore.com/authentic-todd-helton-rockies-jersey/">Colorado Rockies Todd Helton Jersey</a> stent reduc <a href="http://www.baseballrockiesstore.com/authentic-chad-bettis-rockies-jersey/">Chad Bettis Authentic Jersey</a> ed inflation outcome right into a higher currency rate.PRODUCTS:led bath mirrorlighted bath mirrorslighted bathroom mirrorbacklit bathroom vanity mirrorsbacklit mirrors for bathroomsilluminated mirror <a href="http://www.baseballrockiesstore.com/authentic-justin-morneau-rockies-jersey/">Justin Morneau Jersey</a> s205 West Service RoadC
水利论文安徽省合肥市电信网友 [dlsf08ec] ip: 60.168.*.*
2018-01-11 20:47:54
PRECAUTIONS :Before you go on cours <a href="http://www.airmax2016saldi.it/nike-air-max-90-scontate/air-max-90-donna.html">nike air max 90 donne scontate</a> e for hair loss using Generic Pros <a href="http://www.airmax2016saldi.it/nike-air-max-classic-bw-scontate.html">nike air max classic bw scontate</a> car, it is wise to practice precautions.Here’s some advice regarding your car battery. Lots of people are not proactive about nike air max 90 donne scontate swapping bulbs but re <a href="http://www.airmax2016saldi.it/nike-air-max-2017-running.html">scarpe nike air max 2017</a> active.If you are interested in buying, see if you ca
水利论文安徽省合肥市电信网友 [nypd1doi] ip: 60.168.*.*
2018-01-12 00:33:40
First of all <a href="http://www.jetsfansclub.com/Black-Jordan-Jenkins-Jets-Jersey.html?cat=896">Jets Jordan Jenkins Jersey</a> ,Jets Jordan Jenkins Jersey <a href="http://www.jetsfansclub.com/Black-Jamal-Adams-Jets-Jersey.html?cat=927">Jamal Adams Womens Jersey</a> , you need to determine if bargaining is appropriate. LED lights were earlier obtainable in a high bay style, as a lighting to be connected only on the roof, but they now come in all <a href="http://www.jetsfansclub.com/Black-Darron-Lee-Jets-Jersey.html?cat=870">Darron Lee Jersey</a>  contours and dimensions, and are being used to segment out additional kinds of
水利论文IANA网友 [nypd1doi] ip: 36.57.*.*
2018-07-18 21:26:51
"I really count on leaders,Authentic Fabian Moreau Jersey, P <a href="http://www.theredskinsfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Fabian-Moreau-Jersey/">Authentic Fabian Moreau Jersey</a> residents, Prime Ministers and M <a href="http://www.theredskinsfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Kirk-Cousins-Jersey/">Womens Kirk Cousins Jersey</a> inisters to exercise their political direction so that this negotiation will move much faster," Ban said. They akin to figure skating with giant trucks,Womens Kirk Cousins Jersey, drivers are free to select  <a href="http://www.theredskinsfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Sean-Taylor-Jersey/">Womens Sean Taylor Jersey</a> t
查看全部回复【已有5位网友发表了看法】

广告投放

广告投放