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中国东部夏季降水准两年振荡研究 【作者】贾建颖 【导师】孙照渤

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] [Qmf0中国东部夏季降水准两年振荡研究

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【作者】贾建颖导师孙照渤水利论文iM,h Y3O ds&a
【作者基本信息】南京信息工程大学,气象学,2008年,博士

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【中文摘要】 本文利用1951-2005年中国160站月降水资料,NCAR/NCEP再分析资料和NOAA/ERSST海温资料,采用多种统计方法,对中国东部夏季降水准两年振荡(TBO)的气候特征进行了全面分析和讨论,并在此基础上对其形成的可能机制做了进一步的探讨。主要结论如下:1.中国降水期主要集中在每年的夏季(6-8月),且具有显著的TBO特征,中国夏季降水TBO显著区分别位于青藏高原东北侧、东北南部、江淮流域、华南至西南一带和新疆北部。2.中国东部不同地区在不同的时期夏季降水TBO表现出不同的强弱信号。根据中国东部夏季降水TBO特征,可以将中国东部地区划分成7个降水气候区,即东北地区、河套地区、江淮流域、长江流域、华南西部、华南中部及华南东部。1950年代,除华南西部其它各区降水TBO信号较强;1960年代初到1960年代末,除华南西部和河套地区在1960中后期有TBO信号外,其它各区TBO信号较弱;1960年代末到1970年代中后期各区均有明显的TBO信号;1970年代中后期到1980年代中期,河套地区、淮河流域、长江流域和华南中部TBO信号明显:1980年代中期到1990年代初,只有淮河和长江...更多流域的TBO信号较明显;1990年代初至今,除河套地区外其它各区TBO信号表现出增强的趋势。淮河流域是一个很关键的区域,是夏季降水TBO的敏感地区。3.东部夏季降水TBO的POP分析得到两个主要空间型。实部为过渡型,在长江中下游和西南地区有2个很小范围的负值中心,其它地区均为零值;虚部为峰值型,华南东部—长江流域—江淮流域有大范围的正值中心,高值中心位于长江—江淮流域。第1个POP对占东部夏季降水TBO总方差的18.2%,循环周期约为2年。由POP分析、ACP分析及它们的原理,第1年夏季,中东太平洋海温异常增温,对流加强,西太平洋海温偏低,赤道对流层出现明显的东西风异常;Hadley环流减弱;气旋削弱东亚夏季风。海温分布经过重新调整,第2年夏季,中东太平洋海温偏低,对流减弱,海温增高,对流加强,赤道对流层东西风异常发生变化;Hadley环流加强;500hPa环流重新调整。受异常环流影响,中国东部和南海上空产生反气旋,反气旋使东亚上空的夏季风加强,如此循环完成TBO。4.中国东部夏季降水TBO的EOF分析显示,夏季降水TBO存在两个主要的空间模态。第1空间模态方差贡献为20.15%,降水振幅较大,反映了以27°N为界降水量南北反位相的变化关系。第2个模态降水振幅较小,方差贡献为13.06%,反映河套—华北一带与其以南地区反位相关系,中心位置较第1模态偏北。中国东部夏季降水TBO空间模态与大气环流异常关系密切。当夏季降水TBO呈第1模态分布时,从赤道到中高纬地区对流层环流异常十分明显,范围较大,说明第1模态的形成与低纬—中高纬大气环流的相互作用有着密切的关系,来自南半球大气环流异常的影响也不容忽视。当夏季降水TBO呈第2模态分布时,大气环流异常多表现在副热带到中高纬地区。5.中国东部夏季降水TBO的SEOF分析表明,前2模态是东部夏季降水TBO的主要模态,反映了东部夏季降水TBO随季节演变的空间分布特征。第1个季节演变模态是ENSO—TBO模态,这个模态形成背景主要特点就是,随着ENSO的发展,赤道到副热带附近的大气环流系统东移,首先在印度洋出现的异常东风,在东移的过程中在中国东部沿海及西北太平洋上形成异常反气旋并维持到次年夏季ENSO消亡,它是中国东部夏季降水ENSO—TBO形成的关键系统。第2个季节演变模态是非ENSO—TBO模态,它的环流背景主要特点是赤道附近没有明显的环流异常,这个季节演变模态与中高纬环流的变化关系密切。6.ECHAM4模式对大气环流的气候态有较好的模拟能力。总的来说,对冬季的模拟好于夏季,对东亚地区降水的模拟较弱。模式模拟东亚夏季降水除了具有4—6年的主要变化周期外,也能表现出弱的TBO信号。  还原

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~E@+W'\0【英文摘要】 Using 160 stations precipitation of China from 1951-2005, NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data set and ERSST (Extended Reconstruction of Global Sea Surface Temperatures) data, east China summer precipitation TBO's climate characteristics are studied and argued and further to discussed their mechanism by many statistical methods. The results as followed:1. The main rainfall is in the period of summer for China with the obvious feature of TBO, the areas with distinct TBO of summer rainfall for China are respectively in northeast of Tibet, south of Northeast China, the basin of Yangzi and Huaihe, south China to southwest China and north of Xinjiang.2. Based on the characteristic of summer rainfall TBO, east China is divided into 7 sections including northeast China, Hetao basin, Huaihe basin, Yangzi basin, west South China, centre South China and east South China. The divisions own different evolution. 1950s, the rainfall of all divisions have strong TBO except west of south China, from early 1960s ...更多to late, all divisions own weaker TBO besides west of south China and Hetao basin, in the period of mid-late 1970s to mid-1980s, there are obvious TBO for Hetao basin, Huaihe basin, Yangzi basin and centre of south China, mid-1980s to early 1990s, only Huaihe and Yangzi basin have marked TBO signal, from to early 1990s to today, almost all divisions represent the tendency of reinforcing of TBO but Hetao basin. Huaihe basin is the key area and the sensitive area of summer rainfall TBO for east China.3. POP analysis of summer rainfall TBO of east China get two main modes. The real part mode is called transition mode which represent two small negative center in center-low Yangzi basin and southwest China, other areas all be zero, the imaginary part is called peak value mode which have a big extent positive value center in Yangzi and Huaihe basin. The first POPs' variance is 18.2% and the period is about 2 years. By analysis and theory of the POP and ACP, the first summer, east and central Pacific SST rise as following stronger convection meanwhile west Pacific SST decrease with weaker convection, zonal wind anomaly in equator troposphere, weaker Hadley cell and anomaly cyclone cover the SCS-East China reducing Asia summer monsoon. The second summer, the circulation revise, SCS and anomaly anticyclone cover East China and reinforce summer monsoon.4. The EOF's analysis of east China summer rainfall shows that TBO of summer rainfall exist two main modes. The first mode's variance is 20.15% with bigger amplitude which reflects out phase change between north and south by 27°N. The second mode's variance is 13.06% with smaller amplitude which shows the relationship of out phase for Heitao-north Chian belt with its north and south zone, which center is far north than that of first.East China summer rainfall TBO is closed with air circulation anomaly. When summer rainfall TBO is the first mode, there is distinct circulation anomaly in troposphere from equator to mid-high latitude, while anomaly extent is bigger, which means the first mode have tight relationship with interaction between low and mid-high latitude, and it is important to for the effect of air circulation anomaly of south Hemisphere. When the summer rainfall TBO is the second mode, circulation anomaly is almost in subtropical zone and mid-high latitude.5. The SEOF analysis on summer rainfall TBO of East China shows the first two modes are main modes which reflect primary features in seasons for summer rainfall TBO. The SEOF1 is called ENSO-TBO mode which principal characteristic of SSTA and circulation background is, by the developing of ENSO, that equator and subtropical circulation anomaly move to east gradually, anomaly east wind, generated in India Ocean, moves to east and became an anomaly anticyclone in martin of east China and northwest Pacific which maintains to the second summer, so it is the key system of ENSO-TBO of east China summer rainfall. The SEOF2 is called non-ENSO-TBO mode which is not on obvious SSTA background, the corresponding air circulation analysis suggests SEOF2 mode is closely relationship with the anomaly of mid-high latitude circulation.6. ECHAM4 can simulate the average climate state of air circulation. However, the simulation of winter is that of summer, and that of Asia rainfall is weak. The main period of mode of Asia summer rainfall is able to find weaker TBO signal but for the main period of 4-6 years.  还原水利论文PB7R%E5O|R}%d.?

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【中文关键词】 对流层; 准两年振荡; 中国东部; 夏季降水; ENSO; 环流; 海温异常
5f9Fpt&n |7@0【英文关键词】 troposphere; quasi-biennial oscillation; East China; summer rainfall; ENSO; circulation; SSTA水利论文^GoPI
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