宁夏春季首场透雨的气候预测探索--《干旱气象》2005年04期

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\ z#~-Pl.DR5Fc0宁夏春季首场透雨的气候预测探索

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Ts I+sNzHU&z0李艳春 梁旭 纳丽 郑广芬 孙银川

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【摘要】:利用目前在统计预报中广泛应用的最优子集回归预报法,作宁夏南部山区及银川地区春季首场透雨出现日期的统计预报,给出了具体的预报方程和拟合效果分析。并对近30 a来宁夏南部山区及银川地区首场透雨出现日期的变化特征进行了较详细的分析。研究结果表明:银川地区3月份出现首场透雨的气候概率为23.3%、4月份为20%、5月份为23.3%、6月份为33.3%,出现机会相对较多。30 a来春季首场透雨出现日期:20世纪70年代相对较晚,80年代偏早,90年代介于70、80年代之间。南部山区春季首场透雨出现时间相对比较集中,其中4月份出现的气候概率为53%,其次是5月份和3月份,分别为20%和17%,最小的是6月份,只占10%,从近30 a来的总趋势看,南部山区春季首场透雨出现日期在波动中略有推迟现象。利用最优子集回归预报法对宁夏春季首场透雨出现日期的预测具有理想的拟合效果。水利论文 P9X"V.ch t$yA

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【作者单位】:

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VK8J t8T%}0宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室 宁夏气象台 宁夏气象台 宁夏气象台 宁夏气象台水利论文7pc)~0Pel/Q twn

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【关键词】:

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宁夏春季 首场透雨 气候预测水利论文S9|g1v8F S+_:e x

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【基金】:科技部项目(2004DIB3J121)资助水利论文HNvdX

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【分类号】:P456.8

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引言多年来,春季降水量预测是宁夏短期气候预测工作中的重要内容,对春季抗旱工作发挥着重要作用,特别是春季首场透雨的预报对干旱地区指导农业生产具有非常重要的意义,也是各级领导十分关注的问题。但目前对春季首场透雨的预测又是短期气候预测工作中的一个难点和重点。多年水利论文f }3]9yj p6VcI

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