Study on the Uncertainty of the Available Time Under Ship Fire Based on Monte Ca

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Study on the Uncertainty of the Available Time Under Ship Fire Based on Monte Carlo Sampling Method

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汪金辉 褚冠全 李开源


9c-^:B;x h NJ0【摘要】:Available safety egress time under ship fire(SFAT) is critical to ship fire safety assessment,design and emergency rescue.Although it is available to determine SFAT by using fire models such as the two-zone fire model CFAST and the field model FDS,none of these models can address the uncertainties involved in the input parameters.To solve this problem,current study presents a framework of uncertainty analysis for SFAT.Firstly,a deterministic model estimating SFAT is built.The uncertainties of the input parameters are regarded as random variables with the given probability distribution functions.Subsequently,the deterministic SFAT model is employed to couple with a Monte Carlo sampling method to investigate the uncertainties of the SFAT.The Spearman's rank-order correlation coefficient(SRCC) is used to examine the sensitivity of each input uncertainty parameter on SFAT.To illustrate the proposed approach in detail,a case study is performed.Based on the proposed approach,probability density function and cumulative density function of SFAT are obtained.Furthermore,sensitivity analysis with regard to SFAT is also conducted.The results give a high-negative correlation of SFAT and the fire growth coefficient whereas the effect of other parameters is so weak that they can be neglected.水利论文%grm j+~1XD


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LI+Vr[&fJj~0ship fire;ship fire available time;Monte Carlo sampling;uncertainty analysis;sensitivity analysis

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【基金】:supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50909058)水利论文6@|Y1D0o

t2W8|D4wqz0“Chen Guang” Project of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission and Shanghai Education Development Foundation Science & Technology(Grant No. 10CG51)水利论文tv)_/]*R#e#wd P9D


the Innovation Program of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission (Grant No.11YZ133)


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e_1s&v8{A'U`/\01. IntroductionShipping is one of the most common means in modern cargo industry. However, ship fires hasincreased fast in China recently with the development of maritime business. The loss caused by shipfires could be quite considerable. Statistics show水利论文_] M8T*dM\8l

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