Risk calculation method for complex engineering system

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nN z ]B:Gu0Abstract:This paper presents a rapid and simple risk calculation method for large and complex engineering systems,the simulated maximum entropy method (SMEM),which is based on integration of the advantages of the Monte Carlo and maximum entropy methods,thus avoiding the shortcoming of the slow convergence rate of the Monte Carlo method in risk calculation.Application of SMEM in the calculation of reservoir flood discharge risk shows that this method can make full use of the known information under the same conditions and obtain the corresponding probability distribution and the risk value.It not only greatly improves the speed,compared with the Monte Carlo method,but also provides a new approach for the risk calculation in large and complex engineering systems.

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7| \7P8w@,|E5z0Li-ping WANG Yan-ke ZHANG Chang-ming JI Ji-qing LI

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simulated maximum entropy method水利论文;l1b1dq/y*iE

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Monte Carlo method水利论文7Gt,S)x'Y,F\_O

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complex Monte Carlo method maximum entropy method probability distribution calculation method convergence rate flood discharge integration information presents approach simple paper based make use new水利论文6p PbK'T'Op*W

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