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溃坝生命损失分析方法研究(周克发)

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【作者】周克发 【导师】李雷; 施伯兴水利论文 [[2B4ZTP$]:\
【作者基本信息】南京水利科学研究院,岩土工程,2006年,硕士水利论文+`op!z6S*gG

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【中文摘要】 溃坝生命损失分析方法研究建立在国内外溃坝生命损失研究现状和我国已溃水库现场调查及其生命损失分布分析的基础上。文章论述了开展溃坝生命损失研究的必要性、重要性和困难性,介绍了溃坝生命损失估算的几个关键因素,开展了溃坝生命损失分析方法研究,提出了适用于我国的溃坝生命损失评价模型,以便为我国大坝风险评价和风险管理服务。 文章全面系统地综述了国内外溃坝生命损失研究现状,包括溃坝洪水研究和溃坝生命损失评价模型研究。 现场调查我国发生过重大溃坝生命损失的八座已溃水库,对其生命损失分布进行了分析,初步探索了我国已溃水库生命损失的主要分布规律。 应用美国国家气象局的BREACH、FLDWAV等软件对八座已溃水库进行了溃坝洪水严重性推算,采用D&M法和Graham法估算溃坝生命损失,并与实际溃坝生命损失进行了对比,建立了我国溃坝风险人口死亡率表,据此初步地提出了适合我国水库溃坝实际情况的生命损失评价模型。 应用BREACH、FLDWAV等软件进行10000年一遇洪水下汛期的青山水库溃口洪水计算及其下泄演进过程分析,确定溃坝洪水淹没范围,应用几种方法估算了溃坝生命损失值。 最后,对溃坝生命损失估算方...更多法中的一些技术问题进行了初步的总结,提出了一些有助于溃坝生命损失估算研究进一步发展的建议。  还原

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【英文摘要】 "Study on the Analysis Method Research for Loss of Life due to Dam Breach" is founded on its study present situation at home and abroad and the investigation of breached reservoirs and the distribution analysis for their loss of life in China. In this thesis, firstly, the necessity, importance and difficulty of studying the loss of life due to dam breach are defined, some factors of the estimation of the loss of life due to dam breach are introduced, "Study on the Analysis Method Research for Loss of Life due to Dam Breach" is developed, and the evaluating module for the loss of life due to dam breach, which is suitable for Chinese condition, is put forward to in order to serve for dam risk evaluation and management.Secondly, the present study situation of loss of life due to dam breach at home and abroad is summarized systematically, containing the study of flood due to dam breach and the study for the evaluating module of the loss of life due to dam breach.Thirdly, eight typical dam-...更多breached reservoirs which have caused numerous loss of life due to their dam breach in China are investigated in particular; the main distributional characteristics of the loss of life are discussed preliminarily in several aspects.Fourthly, the software of USA national weather bureau, BREACH and FLDWAV, is made use of to forecast flood severity degree due to breach of these eight dams, the estimating methods given by D&M and Graham are applied to estimate the loss of life of them, and then the estimated results are prepared to the actual loss of life, the death rate table of population at risk due to dam breach in China is set up, accordingly The new estimating module of loss of life that is suitable for actual dam breach in China is put forward preliminary.BREACH and FLDWAV are applied to the analysis on the flood inundation area of the QINGSHAN reservoir in Hang Zhou due to dam breach at the condition of 10 000 flood, and its loss of life is estimated.Finally, preliminary some technology problems about the estimation methods of loss of life due to dam breach are concluded, and some suggestions, which help to the  还原水利论文I?#uS0fh2i,H!]M

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【中文关键词】 溃坝; 生命损失; 风险人口; 警报时间; 溃坝洪水严重性; 风险人口对溃坝洪水严重性的理解程度; 估算方法水利论文Q'W7j9jW"FhO4[
【英文关键词】 dam breach; loss life; people at risk; warning time; flood severity degree; the degree of understanding for people at risk to flood severity degree; estimation method水利论文R ^ e2H:^&m@]
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TAG: 分析方法 溃坝 周克发 生命 损失
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