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水库分期汛限水位调整与风险研究(刘克琳)

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【作者】刘克琳 【导师】胡四一; 王银堂水利论文K3H0f5G6H
【作者基本信息】南京水利科学研究院,水力学及河流动力学,2006年,硕士水利论文9t?D2Y] G

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【中文摘要】 中国是世界上严重缺水的国家之一,在北方降水较少的地区,水资源短缺矛盾更为突出。随着人口增长和社会经济的发展,水资源利用量与污水排放量不断增加,生态环境的恶化,这已成为制约国民经济可持续发展的主要因素。而依赖科技进步,充分发挥现有水库的调蓄作用,挖掘调蓄潜力,在不增加防洪风险的前提下适时适度地将部分洪水转化为可资利用的水资源,对缓解流域水资源危机、改善流域生态环境具有重要的现实意义。 论文在综述国内外汛限水位调整运用的理论研究和科学实践的基础上,围绕利用水库分期汛限水位调控洪水资源的若干关键问题,以海河流域潘家口水库为研究对象,从汛期分期、分期设计洪水计算、汛限水位调整的风险分析及效益评价等方面展开研究。 基于影响流域暴雨的大气环流系统的背景分析,通过统计途径,利用旬暴雨日数、旬面平均雨量、旬内不同历时最大雨量以及旬入库水量等指标揭示流域暴雨洪水的时程分布特性和季节性规律;同时为弥补定性分析方法的不足,通过六种常用聚类分析方法适用性的对比分析,结合汛期分期的本质特性,推荐出适宜的汛期分期定量分析方法,在定性与定量分析相结合以及综合分析的基础上,提出潘家口水库的汛期分期方案。 根据拟定的汛...更多期分期方案和现有设计洪水成果,对延长的洪水资料系列进行一致性分析,合理确定各分期中历史洪水及特大洪水的重现期,采用跨期采样方法进行系列的选样分析,在综合分析和合理性检验的基础上,提出潘家口水库分期设计洪水成果。 汛限水位调整方案下水库的防洪风险和效益分析是论文的另一个研究重点,根据风险分析理论,在对其关键影响因子不确定性分析的基础上,从极限风险率和漫坝风险率的估算两个角度,评价汛限水位调整对水库防洪风险的影响;采用模拟分析的途径,以长系列逐日平均入库流量过程为输入,进行水库长系列仿真调度,评价汛限水位调整后水库长期运行的兴利效益。论文最后在系统分析汛限水位主要影响因素的基础上,综合论证提出潘家口水库分期汛限水位调整方案。  还原

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【英文摘要】 China is one of the countries in most sever water resources shortage. In the north of China, the situation is especially serious. With the increase of China population and the development of society and economy, the amount of water resources utilization and polluted water have been rising while the environment quality is deteriorating. This situation has become a main constraining factor of national social-economical continuable development. Therefore, flood water utilization is of great significance for relieving the crisis of water resources shortage and improving the environment quality which can be realized through fully excavation the potentiality of reservoirs storage based on scientific-technical advance while the flood control risk doesn't increase.A overall review of theoretic researches and scientific practices on adjustment & application of staged limited level of reservoir during flood season both domestically and abroad is drawn in this paper. Based on it, some key pro...更多blems focusing on adjustment of staged limited level of reservoir during flood season, such as seasonal flood period partition, staged design flood computation and risk analysis & efficiency assessment of staged flood limited level adjusting are investigated.The Panjiakou reservoir basin is selected as the study object. Based on analysis of the atmosphere circuit influencing basin rainfall, the seasonal trend of rainstorm in Panjiakou reservoir basin is studied both by qualitative and quantitative methods. Rainstorm and flood seasonal change characteristics of Panjiakou basin are synthetically analyzed by statistical study on several points, namely rainstorm days of ten-day period, areal precipitation of ten-day period, different lasting time precipitation of ten-day period and reservoir inflow of ten-day period. In order to overcome the disadvantages of qualitative methods, six kinds of quantitative methods on flood season partition are introduced synchronously. Meanwhile, by contrastive analysis of their feasibility, the suitable method for flood season partition is recommended. Then, a scheme of flood season partition of Panjiakou reservoir is proposed.The consistency of flood series of Panjiakou basin is analyzed. And the historical flood and super flood in this basin are also confirmed. Based on these work and according to the flood season partition scheme, new achievements of design flood of Panjiakou reservoir are put forward by trans-periodical sampling. In the process of flood series sampling, the dependence of samples is fully considered.The flood control risk and efficiency analysis under the situation of reservoir flood limited level adjustment is another important point in this paper. Based on the uncertainty analysis of key factors, the influence on reservoirs flood control risk caused by flood limited level adjustment is evaluated from the two aspects of ultimate risk ratio and dam overflow risk analysis. Selecting a long series of day average inflow as input, a long series regulation simulation of Panjiakou reservoir is conducted. Then, corresponding possible efficiency under reservoir flood limited level adjustment is confirmed.Finally, based on a systematic analysis of main factors influencing flood limited level adjustment of Panjiakou reservoir, the reservoir staged limited level during flood season schemes are synthetically augmented from many aspects.  还原水利论文o3]"FJ7e

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【中文关键词】 汛期分期; 分期汛限水位; 分期设计洪水; 防洪风险分析; 海河流域; 潘家口水库水利论文/Xkl+?j@C |*Z
【英文关键词】 seasonal flood periods classification; staged limited level of reservoir during flood season; staged design flood; risk analysis of flood control; Haihe Basin; Panjiakou reservior
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TAG: 水库 水位 汛限 刘克琳 风险
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