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风险分析在我国大坝安全上的应用(彭雪辉)

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风险分析在我国大坝安全上的应用水利论文$F \0J_*nQ7J

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【作者】彭雪辉 【导师】李雷; 王仁钟水利论文x&`;@)lM7g,L6s&C
【作者基本信息】南京水利科学研究院,岩土工程,2003年,硕士水利论文 G D @4X%S;~

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nJG [7fAK0【中文摘要】 大坝风险分析建立在大坝溃决概率分析和大坝溃决所造成的生命损失和经济损失估算的基础上。本文全面系统阐述了大坝风险分析技术,提出在不同层次上对我国水库大坝进行风险管理,把有限的除险加固资金用到最需要除险加固的水库大坝上,并为除险加固设计方案提供依据。 整理分析了我国大坝溃决情况和非溃坝事故的资料,提出了我国大坝主要破坏模式,并采用历史溃坝资料和事件树法进行大坝溃决概率的计算。 探索了我国大坝风险标准的建立方法,初步提出了一套供我国大坝风险分析使用的单个风险标准、社会风险标准和经济风险标准。 根据美国国家气象局FLDWAV洪水模型进行了溃坝洪水分析,应用溃坝生命损失计算方法和溃坝经济损失计算方法分析了沙河集水库的溃坝损失。 最后,本文对除险加固前的沙河集水库大坝进行了初步风险分析,并应用本文提出的风险标准对风险分析结果进行了评价。水利论文zM&v,b,o5l R@2b

X}+U/Z o}5E;i0【英文摘要】 In recent years dam risk analysis and management established on the basis of the probability of dam failure and the estimation of loss of life and economic loss has been an advanced technology to dam safety management. In this thesis, firstly, dam risk analysis technology is defined systematically, and dam risk management at different levels is put forward in order to make full use of the limited funds to those reservoir dams and provide basis for dam remedial measures.Secondly, data of dam-break and other failure events in China is analyzed. Main dam failure modes in China are given, and historical failure data and event tree method are employed to estimate probability of dam failures.Thirdly, establishment of dam risk criteria in China is explored. A set of dam risk criteria, that is, individual risk criteria, societal risk criteria as well as economic risk criteria, is put forward.Dam-break flood analysis is conducted according to FLDWAV model of United States National Weather Servi...更多ce. Estimation of loss of life and economic loss due to dam-break is employed to analyze dam-break loss of Shaheji Reservoir.Finally, preliminary risk analysis of Shaheji Reservoir Dam is conducted, and the results are evaluated by use of the present dam risk criteria.  还原

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【中文关键词】 大坝风险分析; 风险管理; 破坏模式; 溃坝概率; 风险标准; 溃坝影响; 单个风险; 社会风险; 经济风险
ure_mO)pqS0【英文关键词】 dam risk analysis; risk management; failure mode; probability of dam failure; risk criteria; dam-break consequence; individual risk; societal risk; economic risk
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TAG: 大坝 风险分析 彭雪辉 应用
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