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水利投资效益评价理论、方法与应用 【作者】张新玉 【导师】沈祖诒; 张阳

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)\1s*x4X8m\Z.U9i0【作者】张新玉导师沈祖诒; 张阳
8lzdnUD0PC0【作者基本信息】河海大学,水利水电工程,2002年,博士水利论文!v;}(k._3xJ.W

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【中文摘要】 水利产业作为基础性产业,它对国民经济的意义是巨大的。水利的基础地位、发展需要及根据水利自身的特点来发展水利经济的要求决定水利需要相应的投资,而水利投资效益往往是社会效益与经济效益并举的,过分注重经济效益或社会效益都是不正确的,这是水利投资项目与一般性项目的区别,因而建立水利投资效益评价理论,选择合适的水利投资效益评价方法并应用于水利投资效益评价实践是十分重要的。 全文研究分成三个部分: 第一部分,对水利投资过程进行系统全面的解析,提出水利投资效益评价的理论基础和方法论,特别是研究水利投资效益评价主体的知识框架、价值观念体系和评价的相对合理性反思。 第二部分,兼顾社会效益与经济效益,设计出水利投资效益评价层次结构与二层七大指标体系;运用IAHP模糊综合评判、人工神经网络、博弈论及计量经济模型等工具,分别从水利投资规模与效益、水利投资结构与效益、水利投资效益分解和水利投资对国民经济的拉动作用等四个方面,构建出水利投资效益评价的四大数理模型。 第三部分,结合“九五”水利投资和同时期国民经济的相关数据资料,分别利用第一部分和第二部分所建立的层次结构分析模型、BP神经网络模型、博弈论模型和计量经...更多济模型从水利投资效益综合评价、水利投资结构优化、水利投资效益分解和水利投资对国民经济拉动四个方面对“九五”水利投资效益进行实证评价。  还原水利论文 lsZ"]qB2RoSPp

D0n7f1A4R0【英文摘要】 As the basic industrial, water industrial is significant to national economy. Water conservancy needs corresponding investment because of the basic position, development require of water conservancy and the demand to develop water economy according to the characteristic of water conservancy . Water conservancy's yield is composed of the social benefit and the economic benefit. It is not proper to overemphasizing the economic benefit or the social benefit, and which is the difference between the water project and some other general projects. So it is important to choose appropriate appraisal methods of water conservancy's yield.The dissertation on the whole can be divided into three parts. The first the part, basing on the analysis of water conservancy's investing process, by studying the evaluating theories foundation and the methodology of the water conservancy, giving attention to both sides of the social benefit and economic benefit, seven index system including two layers of the wa...更多ter conservancy' yield is designed.The second part, using the tools such as DEA, artificial nerve network, game theory and econometric model, respectively from four aspects, such as the water conservancy investing scale and performance, water conservancy investing construction and performance, water conservancy investing performance' decompose and influence of water conservancy investing on pulling of national economy, four models were set up to evaluating water conservancies performance.The third part, combining the data of the "ninth five years" water conservancy investment and corresponding national economy , using the IAHP, artificial nerve network, Game theory and econometric model, this article does an appraisal of the "ninth five years" water conservancy's yield from the four angles such as general yield of water conservancy, water conservancy's investing structure optimizing, water conservancy's yield decomposition and influence of water conservancy investing on pulling of national economy was studied in the dissertation.  还原

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._)cOlS9t(k0【中文关键词】 水利投资; 效益评价; BP神经网络; 博弈论; 计量经济模型
B;u0_1^2m!R0【英文关键词】 water conservancy invests; yield appraisal methods; artificial nerve network; game theory; econometric model水利论文3z ?K6nmws|

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TAG: 导师 沈祖诒 水利 张新玉 张阳
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