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大坝安全监控系统可靠性研究 【作者】岳建平 【导师】吴中如; 华锡生

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Dc1\(dA;j5g*L"p6Xb0大坝安全监控系统可靠性研究水利论文J5`C|9Y0vP

&Z"Q&JAv3C\m(K1}4A0【作者】岳建平 【导师】吴中如; 华锡生水利论文:ZQ6FUP
【作者基本信息】河海大学,水工结构工程,2002年,博士

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|R}\3F*n&C9H0【中文摘要】 大坝安全监控系统的可靠性,对建立大坝安全监控模型、馈控大坝的安全状态、综合评价大坝的工作性态有着重要作用。本文针对目前大坝安全监控系统的各个重要部分和环节及其正在研究的热点问题,应用数学理论和先进的评价方法,对其进行了系统的分析和研究。提出了大坝安全监控系统可靠性的一些新方法及提高系统可靠性的一些新措施。论文的主要内容如下: 1.对关联分析方法进行了深入的分析研究。该方法根据测点间的相关特性,建立关联模型,不仅方法简单,计算方便,而且效果显著,能有效地识别异常值。 2.对人工神经网络模型探测异常值的原理和方法进行了深入的研究,分析了神经网络模型存在的主要问题,提出了解决这些问题的途径和方法。 3.研究了附加参数法和综合分析法检验系统误差的新方法,该方法能有效地分离时效分量和系统误差,实例证明,该方法效果明显。 4.对统计模型的可靠性进行了深入的分析研究,针对建立统计模型中存在的粗差影响、因子相关和法矩阵病态等问题,研究了主成分迭代算法,实例证明,该方法有效地克服了上述问题,使统计模型的可靠性得到明显的提高。 5.研究了模型误差及其对监控模型的影响,结果表明,过多或过少地选择因子都会对监...更多控模型的可靠性产生不利影响。 6.针对神经网络模型中存在的隐含层结点数难以确定等问题,研究了灰色动态神经网络模型。该模型利用灰色理论优化输入层结点,利用动态神经网络优化隐含层结点,从而获得最优的神经网络模型。 7.系统研究了利用监控模型进行参数反演时存在的主要问题及一些关键的影响因素,并提出了解决的办法。 8.分析和讨论了大坝安全监控专家系统的结构、数据流程和整体要求。讨论了大坝安全监控专家系统知识库的内容、特点和分类。 9.研究了基于规则和神经网络的混合专家知识库,并对推理机制、控制策略和知识管理等问题进行了深入的讨论。从硬件、软件等多个方面提出了提高专家系统可靠性的方法。 10.结合小浪底大坝安全监控系统项目,研究了该系统的总体结构、在线分析子系统、离线分析子系统和该系统的可靠性设计方案。  还原水利论文0B1v3@V|

m#yZ!dLg$r&F0【英文摘要】 The reliability of dam safety monitoring system is very important for erecting dam safety monitoring and controlling models, feed backing and controlling the dam safe state and judging of its working character synthetically. In this paper, the main parts of dam safety monitoring system and some hot points about it were discussed with new theories and methods. Some new methods about estimating or improving the reliability of monitoring system were advanced. The mostly content in the paper is as following:1. The relating analysis method was embedded studied. The relating model was found with the relationship character. It can detect gross errors conveniently. The examples proved that the method was effective.2. The method of detecting abnormal observations with ANN model was discussed. The main problems of ANN model were analyzed. The method of solving the problems were studied. A new method for detecting system error was discussed.3. A new method of append parameters and integrated anal...更多yzing to detect system errors were studied. It can separate time weight and system error effectively. The example shows that the method was available.4. The reliability of statistical model was particular discussed. The problems as gross errors influencing, gene relating were discussed. A new method named main element repeating was studied. It can improve the reliability effectively.5. The influence of model errors was discussed. The result indicated that the more or less gene will influence the reliability of models.6. Aiming at the problem as dormant layer points, A new method named GDANN was studied. With the method, the best ANN model can be acquired.7. A new method named draft variance to separate model error and true error was discussed. Some problems and affecting factors about parameter inversion with controlling model were particularly analyzed.8. The actuality and development direction of expert system research was introduced. The framework, data flowing, system requirement and so on were particularly analyzed and discussed. The structure of mixed KB was introduced. Some methods for improving the reliability of dam safe monitoring and controlling expert system were advanced.9. A mixed repository which based on rule and ANN was studied. The method of reasoning, controlling and repository mange was discussed. Some advice for improving the ES reliability was advanced.10. As a example, the xiaolangdi dam monitoring system was particularly discussed. A practical online/offline system for judging dam safety was researched and introduced.  还原水利论文.B0Z!P,FO1t*n

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【中文关键词】 大坝监测; 粗差; 系统误差; 监控模型; 专家系统; 可靠性水利论文,w!Q#v2LCn;_;hPY
【英文关键词】 dam safety monitoring; gross errors; system errors; monitoring and controlling model; export system; reliability
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