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国民经济发展对水利的宏观及微观需求预测分析研究 【作者】史安娜 【导师】郑垂勇

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【作者】史安娜 【导师】郑垂勇水利论文Jn$}|.cF _
【作者基本信息】河海大学,技术经济及管理学,2002年,博士水利论文gUPGI ]#`?!k `C

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【中文摘要】 本文在全面分析我国当前社会经济发展所面临与水利有关问题的基础上,利用可持续发展的基本观点和系统理论,站在21世纪国民经济及社会发展的高度,从宏观和微观两个层面对水利需求进行了预测分析。 首先从宏观层面上给出了水利需求的预测分析理论和方法。提出了水利发展的结构特征——宏观“网络”结构特征、中观“组合”结构特征及微观“实体”结构特征;提出了满足国民经济需求的水利发展结构框架,即点(城市水利)—线(产业水利)—面(流域水利)的网状框架。在此基础上,从城市经济、产业经济及区域经济的发展角度,建立了国民经济发展的水利需求动力模型;并着重分析了城市化和工业化进程、产业结构调整及区域经济发展与水利需求之间的动力学联系,研究了水利发展对国民经济所形成的动力机制;并进行了仿真试验,从而得出国民经济发展对水利宏观需求的预测分析成果,为我国21世纪水利发展决策和政策制定提供科学依据。 其次从微观层面上给出了水利需求微观实体的财务经济预测分析方法。提出了为满是国民经济发展要求,对拟建或在建水利工程(尤其是大中型水利工程)今后运营的经济状况、运营潜力、管理效力高低进行预测的方法,如合适的投资资本金确定法及最大...更多可承受运行费用计算法等方法;并以我国在建的大型水利工程—小浪底水利枢纽今后运营能力为例进行实证预测分析。其研究的结论不仅为水利发展微观运行决策提供具体方法,同时还为大中型水利枢纽实现良性运行,提供制定政策的理论依据。  还原水利论文 ?-B'o\&O

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【英文摘要】 This dissertation is to address the issue of the interrelationship between China's economic development and water conservancy in the 21st century. My study is based upon the fundamental viewpoints of sustainable development and the system theory. The ultimate goal for this study is to propose a predicative analysis on the problematics of water conservancy in China's current economic development from both the macro-and microscopic perspectives. To begin with,from a macroscopic perspective,this project discusses the structural development of water conservancy, namely, the macroscopic structure of network, the medium-scopic structure of combination,and the microscopic structure of entity. In this light,this study proposes the structural network of water conservancy in the need of China's economic development,consisting of point (urban water conservancy), line (industrial water conservancy), and dimension (water conservancy in the river basin areas). On this basis,this study proposes the d...更多ynamic model of the demand for water resource in China's economic development within the framework of urban economics,industrial economics and regional economics. My analysis centers upon the issues of urbanization,industrialization,industrial restructuring,regional economic development and their dynamic interraction with the demand for water resource. My ultimate goal is to propose a dynamic system of water conservancy within the framework of China's economic development. To make my analysis more pragmatic,a simulative experimentation is made to put forward a predicative data analysis on the demand for water resource in China's economic development, which believe,will provide a constructive reference for the decision-making and policy-making for China's water conservancy in the 21st century.Secondly,from a microscopic perspective,my project adopts the theory and methodology of financial economics to offer a predicative analysis on the microscopic entity of water conservancy. On this basis, my study evaluates the functionality of the hydraulic engineering projects under construction and/or in blueprint (especially the large-scaled and medium-scaled ones) within the framework of China's sustainable development,which includes their financial operation, economic potentiality,and management efficiency. In terms of predicative analysis,my project employs the methods of estimating investment capital fund and optimal operative expenditure. A case study on Xiaolangdi Hydraulic Terminal,one of the largest-scaled hydraulic engineering projects under construction in China,is made to illustrate the theoretical and methodological approaches that have been discussed throughout this study. My present research project is ultimately aimed to provide the academic reference for the policy-making in terms of the microscopic operation of water conservancy and of the efficient operation of the large- and medium-scaled hydraulic engineering projects in contemporary China.  还原水利论文X5C!P/Z@

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【中文关键词】 国民经济发展; 水利需求; 可持续发展; 预测分析; 系统仿真; 财务经济状况; 投资资本金; 最大可承受运行费用
I7i4H5xkHo^'rRzU0【英文关键词】 national economic development; the demand for water resourc; sustainable development; predicative analysis; systematic simulation; financial economic condition; investment captial fund.optimal operative expenditure.
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TAG: 水利 微观 国民经济 需求 预测
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