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港航经济系统理论与数理模型研究 【作者】许长新 【导师】严以新

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.pgT)BT/_!g7T0港航经济系统理论数理模型研究

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+UGi9E S#vR K^Y0【作者】许长新 【导师】严以新水利论文DB3T(Gq\
【作者基本信息】河海大学,港口、海岸及近海工程,2001年,博士

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U4U6d}'^~Hs7p0【中文摘要】 本文研究港航经济系统理论与数理模型,力图为港航工程建设及水路运输发展寻求一种新思路。 在分析我国港航工程建设及水路运输发展面临困境的基础上,将港航工程、水路运输、工程经济用经济学的思想和系统科学的方法有机地联系在一起,构造港航工程与软科学组合的港航经济系统,提出“由港航工程建设向港航资源经济管理转化,实现中国港航经济系统的可持续发展”的战略目标。 建立并论证港航经济系统的可持续发展理论,并以此作为指导港航工程建设和水路运输发展的宏观理论;在港航经济系统可持续发展理论的框架内派生出中观的与其他交通基础设施和运输方式相比较的比较优势理论,为港航工程倾斜投资、水路运输重点发展提供了理论依据;建立港航经济系统内部的主体(港航企业)运营的有效竞争和客体(港航资源)开发的有效竞争理论,用于指导港航经济系统内部的港航企业管理和港航资源开发投资的责权划分,从而有利于港航经济系统的可持续发展。 提出港航项目评价的一种指标体系,分析港航项目的概率风险和效用偏好,并给出港航项目比选及综合评价思路;结合港航工程及水路运输行业特色,构造测定港航企业竞争力的指标体系、港航企业竞争力评价的复合权重多目标决策模型;以...更多港口企业为研究对象,构造港口企业间的多种博弈模型;利用投入产出分析方法,设计出港航经济系统投资对国民经济增长的驱动模型,定量测定港航经济系统在国民经济中观系统中的地位和作用;建立经济互动的投影寻踪模型,提出港口集装箱生成量与区域经济的影响因素分析模型和港航经济系统与腹地区域经济的定量关系。 研究了上海国际航运中心发展的瓶颈制约,对内研究组合港的发展,对外研究竞争港的挑战,进一步论证上海国际航运中心新港址方案为“中心两翼”型。指出长江三角洲丰富的货源优势是上海国际航运中心的重要支撑,缺乏-12.5米深水航道是上海国际航运中心的建设瓶颈,长江口深水航道治理是上海国际航运中心脱“颈”而出的关键。 BS 本文在以下三个方面进行了开拓性探讨:①建立港航经济系统,提出“由港航工程建设向港航资源经济管理转化,实现中国港航经济系统的可持续发展”的战略目标;②系统地提出并论证了港航经济系统的可持续发展、比较优势和有效竞争三大理论假说,构成了港航经济系统的宏观、中观、微观理论体系:③研究了港航经济系统的微观、中观和宏观数理模型。将动态投入产出模型、多目标复合权重评价与决策模型、投影寻踪模型、博奕论等前沿性模型综合集成到港航经济系统,构成了港航经济系统的数理模型体系。  还原水利论文 r j8B Iq*OI

6xYA&LLH0【英文摘要】 In this article, the author researches on systematic theory and mathematical model of harbor & navigation (H&N) economic, tries to find a new method of thinking for the construction of H&N engineering and the development of water transportation.On the basis of analyzing the difficult position in the construction of H&N engineering and the development of water transportation, the author sets a scientific and reasonable relationship among the H&N engineering ^ water transportation and engineering economic by the theories of economics and the way of systematic science, and makes a H&N economy system composed of H&N engineering and soft science. Also, the article puts forward a strategic target which is "make a transition from the construction of H&N engineering to the efficient management of H&N resources, keep the H&N economic system a sustainable development".Establish and prove the theory of the sustainable development of H&N economic system,...更多 and apply it as the directive macro theory in the process of the construction of H&N engineering and water transportation development; deriving the comparative advantage theory compared with other communication infrastructures and transportation ways, provide the theory support for more investment on the construction of H&N engineering and more attention on water transportation development; establish the efficient competition theory on the efficient competition among the subjects (enterprises) in the H&N economic system and the development of objects(H&N resources), which can be used in the management of the enterprises in H&N economics system and the allocation of the duties and responsibilities caused in resources development, so it will be good to the sustainable development of the H&N economic.To analyze the risk possibility and utilities preference of H&N project, advance a kind of indicator system of the H&N project study, and provide a method of thinking applying in the selection and comprehensive appraise H&N projects; considering the character of H&N engineering and the water transportation industry, build the indicator system and the compound-weight decision model with multi-object to appraise the competitive power of the enterprises in H&N field; choosing the enterprise in H&N industry as researching object, construct a model in game theory; with the way of input-output analysis, design a domestic economy growing model driven by the investment in H&N economic system, so can quantitatively measure the role and function of H&N economic system in domestic one; establish an projection pursuit model with the economy interaction, put forward amodel analyzing the influential factors between the scale of harbor container and regional economy development, and set a quantitative relationship between H&N economic system and inner-region one.Basing on the researches on the bottleneck in developing the International Shipping Center of Shanghai (ISCS), further prove that the type of new location plan of ISCSH should be "center with two wings". It is the advantages of the rich resources in Yangtze River Delta that the important support for ISCS, without the shipping channel -12.5 deep is the bottleneck, so harnessing the deep-water shipping channel at entrance of Yangtze river is the key to make ISCS remove the "bottleneck " of development.Some problems in three aspects is firstly discussed in this article: (1) establish H&N economic system, put forward a strategic target "make a transition from the construction of H&N engineering to the efficient management of H&N resources, keep the H&N economic system a sustainable development". (2) systematically advance and prove three theory hypothesis including H&N economic system sustainable development, comparative advantage and efficient competition, so the macro, mid, and micro theory frame on H&N economic system are composed of all of these mentioned above.(3Research on the macro, mid, and micro mathematical model of H&N economic system. Integrating the dynamical input-output model, the compound-weight decision  还原

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【中文关键词】 港航经济系统; 可持续发展; 数理模型; 上海国际航运中心
9|_[&~8{t9TP&z0【英文关键词】 Harbor&Navigation(H&N) Economic System; Sustainable Development; Mathematical Model; International Shipping Center of Shanghai(ISCS)

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TAG: 理论 模型 研究 数理 经济系统
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