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生态足迹模型的多尺度分析及其预测研究 【作者】陈成忠 【导师】林振山

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【作者】陈成忠导师林振山
by-edMr!c!ph0【作者基本信息】南京师范大学,自然地理学,2008年,博士水利论文0HY N m1k$~l G

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ty'v1E$rs$j)Gs8T0【中文摘要】 近10年来,生态足迹模型作为一种衡量自然资源可持续利用的生物物理定量评价方法,得到有关国际机构、政府部门、非政府组织和研究机构的广泛关注,成为可持续发展领域的研究热点,也成为生态经济学的研究焦点和前沿。但由于存在着静态性、缺乏预测性和结论单一性等许多令人遗憾的不足之处,在学术界引起较大争议,甚至遭到一些研究者批评。本文为克服生态足迹模型过于静态性、缺乏预测性和结论单一性的缺陷,以中国为例,基于可变均衡因子、世界不变平均单产法计算生态足迹,可变均衡因子、国家不变产量因子法计算生物承载力;将经验模态分解(empirical mode decomposition,EMD)、动力学建模方法应用于生态足迹模型的综合或单项指标多尺度分析和多情景预测研究;基于熵值法提出生态足迹构成指数和生物承载力构成指数两个新概念,评价区域系统的可持续发展潜力,完善生态足迹理论的指标体系,并运用求和自回归滑动平均(Autoregressive integrated moving averagemodels,ARIMA)建模原理进行模拟及预测;将EMD多尺度分析和偏最小二乘回归分析或因子分析相结合,应用于生态足迹不同...更多组分变化的驱动因素研究;运用能值法、投入产出法,对传统生态足迹模型中的进出口贸易足迹进行计算改进。具体方法和结论如下:(1)基于生态足迹指数的全球生态可持续性时空分析发现,1961-2003年全球生态足迹指数在波动中急剧下降,1987年转入不可持续状态。1996、1999、2001、2003年不同国家和地区的生态足迹指数差别很大。从生态足迹指数1996、1999、2001、2003年四年的空间分布格局看,全球的不可持续和严重不可持续发展地区基本在人口比较集中、经济发展水平相对比较发达的中纬度地区,中国也在其中。利用EMD方法提取1961-2003年全球人均生态足迹变化的波动周期,建立具周期性波动的非线性动力学模拟模型,进行长时间序列的多情景数值模拟表明,只要人类采取有效措施,逐步消除生态超载、实现可持续发展是完全可能的。从整体上看,全球的生态可持续发展形势有逐步恶化趋势,中国的生态可持续发展形势亦不容乐观。(2)1949-2006年,中国生态足迹指数在波动中急剧下降,生态足迹效率20世纪80年代以前变化非常缓慢,自80年代末大幅提高。EMD多尺度分析发现,中国人均生态足迹存在明显的4.4年和13.1年两个波动周期,生物承载力具有明显的4.5年和6.4年两个波动周期。中国人均生态足迹变化的偏最小二乘回归分析发现,人口数量及构成、交通运输、三大产业产值及进出口贸易总额等是驱动其周期性变化和持续增长的主要因素。适当加快小城镇化建设,加强交通运输管理,优化产业机构,制定合理的贸易策略是中国减少生态足迹、降低人类环境影响的有效措施。EMD多情景动力学预测表明,若一切照旧,中国将朝向远离可持续的方向发展;若采取有效措施,即依据缓慢变化或快速减少情景发展,中国不仅自身能实现可持续发展,而且还将对全球的可持续发展做出巨大贡献。(3)基于熵值法提出能够衡量生态足迹和生物承载力构成多样性的生态足迹构成指数和生物承载力构成指数两个新概念,计算并构建了中国人均生态足迹构成指数和生物承载力构成指数较为理想的ARIMA预测模型分别为ARIMA(2,1,1)、ARIMA(1,1,1)。预测结果表明,2006-2010年,中国人均生态足迹构成指数将在波动中有所下降,生物承载力构成指数持续下降,未来4年可持续发展潜力在波动中也将有所降低。若采取有效措施,可持续发展形势将有较大好转。中国人均生态足迹构成指数与10个驱动因素的偏最小二乘回归分析发现,正相关因素依次为城镇人口、第一产业产值、总人口、进出口贸易总额、第三产业产值,负相关因素依次为政府消费、农业人口、居民消费、人均GDP、第二产业产值。(4)运用统计-动力学建模方法,构建了生态足迹模型各组分构成比例变化的普适预测模型。以中国人均能源足迹、生态足迹和生物承载力构成为例,预测结果表明,未来10年,原煤足迹比例逐渐下降,原油足迹、天然气足迹、水电足迹比例逐步上升;耕地足迹、林地足迹比例不断下降,草地足迹、水域足迹、能源足迹将逐渐上升,建设足迹比例将在下降一段时间后缓慢回升;耕地承载力、林地承载力、草地承载力比例不断增加,水域承载力和建设承载力比例均呈下降趋势。提高煤炭利用效率、实现海洋渔业的可持续开发、保护耕地、提高技术、进一步实施退耕还林还草工程,对促进中国的可持续发展至关重要。能源足迹的部门分解发现,工业、交通运输通讯业、生活消费、非物质生产部门、农业是能源消费的主要部门。生态足迹的产业分解发现,第一产业土地占用比例最大,第二产业次之,第三产业最小,平均分别为56.72%、32.85%、10.43%,今后应优化产业结构,大力发展污染小、生态资源占用少的第三产业。(5)EMD多尺度分析发现,1953-2006年中国人均能源足迹存在5年、10.4年、15.8年三个波动周期,中国人均能源足迹年增长率存在4.2年、8.7年、14.9年和26.0年四个波动周期。对与中国人均能源足迹增长率高度相关的37个影响因子在前三个主要时间尺度下的因子分析发现,人均GDP、工业产值、轻工业产值、重工业产值、第二产业产值、资本形成总额、建筑业产值、交通运输仓储通信等是共同的主要影响因子。基于EMD的中国人均能源足迹多情景预测表明,若不采取有效措施降低人均能源足迹,一切照旧发展,中国未来的可持续发展形势非常严峻;采取有力措施实施循环经济、倡导节约型社会,未来43年中国能够在稳定经济增长的同时降低人均能源足迹;若迅速采取有效的能源措施和能源战略,不仅能够迅速解决国内生态足迹不断加大的不利形势,而且能够对缓解全球日益紧张的能源形势发挥巨大作用。(6)基于投入产出方法、能值方法计算了中国1995-2005年进出口贸易中的生态足迹,并与传统方法计算结果进行对比分析。结果发现,能值方法由于计算项目最多计算结果最大。中国进出口贸易足迹变化的动力学预测表明,未来10年中国进出口贸易足迹不断增加,且以进口为主,进出口贸易能够消除部分生态赤字;进口足迹将明显加大,出口足迹增长较小;考虑进出口贸易足迹后的生态足迹指数表明我国的进出口贸易格局将逐步趋向合理。本文基于EMD方法的多尺度分析、动力学建模的多情景预测、基于熵值法提出的两个新概念及其ARIMA预测,EMD多尺度分析与偏最小二乘回归分析相结合进行驱动因素研究等是重要的科学创新。这些指标的提出和方法的运用,不仅发展完善了生态足迹模型的理论指标体系,为生态足迹模型的预测性研究提供了一些新思路;而且,对国家资源管理和环境战略决策,对全球和区域可持续发展状态的预测、预警和相关政策制定具有一定的决策咨询作用和现实指导意义,对科学地协调人地关系具有一定的理论指导意义。  还原

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p;hwk)U]0【英文摘要】 Nowdays, as a bio-physical quantitative assessment tool to estimate the sustainable utilization of natural resources, ecological footprint (EF) method proposed by Rees and Wackernagel et al. has gained much attention from international scientists, world's governments and non-government organizations. The EF model has been regarded as a hot issue of research both sustainable development and ecological economics. There are some critiques on EF model such as its static state, lacking of forecast, and its singularity of results. Per capital EF and biocapcity (BC) in China 1949-2006 are calculated based on variable equivalence factors, invariable average yields, and invariable national yield factors. The main purpose of this paper is to overcome the above-mentioned limitations of EF model. Integrated and single components of EF model are studied with nonlinear science methods such as empirical mode decomposition (EMD), dynamic model, and autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIM...更多A) model in this paper. EF embodied in international trade is also calculated based on emergy analysis, and input-output analysis methods. Some specified measurements and conclusions are as follows:1. Dynamic changes of global sustainable ecosystem are assessed with long-term series from 1961 to 2003, and the ecosystem sustainability of 154 countries and regions in 1996, 1999, 2001, and 2003 are analyzed based on ecological footprint index (EFI). Over the last 42 years, the world's EFI has reduced sharply with fluctuation. The country with the highest EFI in 2003 is Gabon, and the lowest is Iraq. The highest EFI is Yemen, and the lowest is Greece in 2001. The highest is Gabon, the lowest is Kuwait in either 1999 or 1996. The fluctuant cycles of global per capita EF from 1961 to 2003 is decomposed based on EMD, and a nonlinear dynamic simulative model is presented with the cycles. Simulative numerical values of three global per capita EF scenarios are analyzed based on the simulative model.2. EFI has reduced sharply with fluctuation in China 1949-2006.The change of its ecological footprint efficiency (EFE) is very slowly before 1980, subsequently, is sharply increased. The fluctuant cycles of per capita EF and BC in China 1949-2006 are decomposed based on EMD method. Nonlinear dynamic prediction models are presented with the cycles. Over the last 57 years, the obvious undulation cycles of per capita EF in China are 4.4 years and 13.1 years, and the periods of per capita BC are 4.5 years and 6.4 years. The business-as-usual scenario looks at the consequence that per capita ED would be 8.380gha in China in 2050. The slow-shift scenario shows it would be 1.059gha in 2050 and 0.614gha in 2100. The rapid-reduce scenario shows it would be 0.788gha in 2050 and 0.452gha in 2100, respectively.3. Ecological footprint component index (EFCI) and bicapacity component index (BCCI) are proposed based on entropy method. ARIMA (2,1,1) prediction model of EFCI and ARIMA (1,1,1) prediction model of BCCI are constructed based on entropy method in China 1949-2006. The results show EFCI will be increased to 0.02930 in 2007 and then fall to 0.02804 in 2010, and BCCI will be decreased to 0.01290 in 2010. The partial least squares regression model of EFC1 shows that the main influencing factors are population, GDP, resident consumption and total value of imports and exports.4. The prediction models of the components of per capita energy EF, EF and BC in China are constructed. The proportions of coal, crops, forest footprint will be decreased in China 2007-2015, and those of crude oil, natural gas, hydropower, pasture, fisheries, energy will be increased consistently. The proportion of built-up land will be increased after it decreases a few years. The proportions of crops, forest, and pasture biocapacity will be increased, and those of fisheries and built-up biocapacity will be decreased. The main energy consumption sections are industry, traffic transportation and telecommunication, living consumption, nonmaterial production sectors, and agriculture. The annual average proportion of primary industry EF in China 1995-2005 is 56.72 percent, the one of secondary industry EF is 32.85 percent, and the one of tertiary industry EF is 10.43 percent.5. The fluctuation periods of annual China's per capita EEF growth rate and per capita EEF are analyzed with EMD method. The main timescales of the thirty-seven factors that affect the annual growth rate of EEF are also discussed based on EMD and factor analysis methods. The multiple scenarios prediction models are constructed based on EMD method. The analysis findings from the common synthesized factors of three timescales of 37 factors suggest that China's energy policy-makers should attach more importance to stabilizing of economic growth, optimizing industrial structure, regulating domestic petroleum exploitation, and improving transportation efficiency. The business-as-usual scenario looks at the consequence that per capita EEF would be 9.548gha in 2050. The slow-shift scenario shows it would be 0.729gha in 2050 and 0.543gha in 2100. The rapid-reduce scenario shows it would be 0.611gha in 2050 and 0.489gha in 2100, respectively.6. EF embodied in international trade is calculated based on input-output analysis and emergy analysis methods in China 1995-2005, and their differences with traditional method is compared. The dynamic prediction model of import and export EF in China is constructed based on the calculation of traditional method. Over last 10 years, EF embodied in international trade in China is constantly increased, and import EF is bigger than export EF in general. The import EF will be obviously bigger than export EF in China 2006-2016. The EF1 taking into account import-export trade shows import-export trade structure in China will be more rational than at present.These are unique that EMD mutiple timescales analysis, mutiple scenarios of danamic model, partial least-squares regression model, and conceptions of EFCI and BBCI based on EF model in this paper. This resrearch is useful to find feasible approaches to reducing human impact on environment, and to provide references to sustainable development for China's policy-makers. It could be also to enrich the assessment index system of sustainable development based on EF analysis method.  还原水利论文fZ b3C6t~\ k

IiR,AGL3b0【中文关键词】 生态足迹; 生物承载力; 模型; 多尺度分析; 预测水利论文6RRr-_"e3Ko"{E~[+N
【英文关键词】 Ecological footprint; biocapacity; model; multiple scales analysis; prediction水利论文#`@9K3V^#[,I

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TAG: 导师 林振山 陈成忠 尺度分析 足迹
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